The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) relieved Western Canada’s crude oil bottleneck when it entered service in 2024, adding nearly 600 Mb/d of pipeline capacity and expanding access to Pacific and international markets. But that capacity cushion will not last indefinitely.
East Daley Analytics’ WCSB Production Model forecasts liquids production will increase by ~500 Mb/d through 2030, leaving Western Canada’s crude oil egress system highly utilized at about 97% over the next four years (see figure from Energy Data Studio).
Western Canada is not immediately returning to the severe constraints experienced before TMX. However, the industry may need to sanction additional takeaway capacity before the existing system becomes physically full.
Pipeline projects require years to secure commercial commitments, complete regulatory reviews and enter service. As utilization approaches the upper-90% range, producers also have less flexibility to manage maintenance, disruptions and seasonal changes in refinery demand.
The relevant question therefore is not when every pipeline becomes completely full. It is which expansions can attract shipper commitments as the capacity cushion narrows.
Existing Corridors Hold the Advantage
Several projects could address the tightening balance, but expansions that leverage existing infrastructure appear to have the highest probability of moving forward.
- Trans Mountain is evaluating opportunities to increase throughput through operating efficiencies, additional pumping capacity and other system optimizations. An expansion would add West Coast capacity without requiring an entirely new pipeline corridor, preserving the strategic benefit of greater access to Asian markets.
- Enbridge’s (ENB) Line 26 project offers another relatively achievable path. The project would increase Canadian crude movements into the Bakken and connect those barrels with the Dakota Access Pipeline system. Because it relies substantially on existing infrastructure, Line 26 could provide incremental capacity sooner and at lower cost than a major greenfield project.
- South Bow’s (SOBO) proposed Prairie Connector would provide another route from Alberta into US markets, including more direct access to Gulf Coast refining demand. SOBO is targeting a mid-2027 final investment decision following a successful open season backed by 20-year binding commitments. However, the project is still contingent on the other two legs of the project: the US-Canada border to Guernsey, and from Guernsey to Cushing.
Larger proposals, including new West Coast or Eastern Canadian pipelines, could provide greater market diversification and materially more capacity. However, those projects would require substantially more capital, government support and long-term shipper commitments.
The Next Buildout is Likely to Be Staged
East Daley’s forecast points to the need for additional Canadian crude takeaway capacity over time, but it does not support every project currently under discussion.
The most likely outcome is a staged buildout. TMX optimization, Line 26 and other brownfield expansions appear best positioned to capture the first tranche of demand. These projects can add capacity incrementally and may be easier to align with the pace of production growth in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin.
The key signal will be contracting activity rather than current physical utilization. TMX solved Canada’s immediate pipeline problem; it also started the clock on the next one. – Amelia Johnson and Keland Rumsey Tickers: ENB, SOBO.
One Market, One Model: Gain a Holistic View of North America Supply & Demand
East Daley Analytics is pleased to announce the Canada Supply & Demand report. The Canada S&D completes our North American model, providing a fully integrated supply and demand forecast for crude oil and natural gas. East Daley follows molecules from Canadian production through US infrastructure to end-markets. Clients now have a continental view to anticipate trends, from how Canadian gas is reshaping Midwest markets, to how crude imports flow to Gulf Coast refiners. The Canada S&D report and dataset is available exclusively in Energy Data Studio. Reach out to learn more about East Daley’s North American energy model.
Reading the Signals: Staying Ahead of Gas, Crude & NGL Markets Through Year-End
Volatility is defining today’s energy markets, and East Daley’s July webinar will help make sense of what’s next.
Prices are the signal producers can’t ignore. Natural gas prices remain under pressure while crude oil markets continue to react to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. When realized prices compress, producers respond: deferring completions, high-grading acreage and re-underwriting economics in real time. The question isn’t whether producers are adapting, it’s how fast, and where the next pressure point emerges.
Infrastructure is the other half of the equation. In the NGL market, rising Waha gas prices, driven by new pipeline capacity, are eroding the cost advantage that’s long favored ethane rejection. In the Permian, the math is even more binding: How much longer can oil and associated gas production keep growing as crude takeaway capacity tightens? Infrastructure doesn’t just move barrels. It sets the ceiling on what producers can economically bring to market.
And none of this happens in isolation. Gas, crude and NGLs are structurally linked through associated production, processing economics and shared basin infrastructure. A shift in one commodity’s price or takeaway capacity ripples through the others, which means forecasting any single molecule in a vacuum gets you the wrong answer.
Join East Daley’s analysts as they connect these dots: breaking down the market forces shaping 2H26, what they mean for producers and midstream operators, and the key indicators to watch in the months ahead.
Click here to register for our July webinar on Wednesday, July 29 at 10:00 am MT.
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