Decoding U.S. Crude — From Wellhead to Demand

East Daley’s crude oil analytics deliver visibility into the entire crude supply chain – from upstream production trends to midstream flows and downstream impacts. We track basin-level crude output (e.g. Permian, Bakken), pipeline transportation and hub storage flows, export volumes, and regional pricing dynamics. By connecting these elements, our analysis shows how production shifts, pipeline capacity, and export trends shape oil prices and midstream performance. Essentially, we provide a full-picture read on U.S. crude fundamentals, not just isolated data points.

Our crude oil analysis is uniquely detailed and predictive, thanks to East Daley’s asset-level modeling approach. We balance pipe-by-pipe flows in and out of major crude hubs and export terminals to create a dynamic view of the oil market. This Crude Hub modeling enables us to forecast bottlenecks or surpluses at key locations with a high degree of accuracy. Moreover, we integrate cross-commodity factors – for instance, how NGL processing or refining outages might affect crude flows – giving our clients foresight that single-commodity analyses miss. The result is an unparalleled ability to “read the crude market” and anticipate changes before they hit mainstream data.

The Crude Hub Model is East Daley’s flagship crude oil forecasting tool that models the entire commercial flow of oil through U.S. hubs. It accounts for every major pipeline into and out of key crude hub markets, balancing flows to deliver a unique, accurate forecast of crude movements. By using this model, we can see how oil is moving from production areas into hubs (like Cushing or the Gulf Coast) and out to refineries or export docks, under various scenarios. It essentially simulates the crude network’s logistics, helping traders and planners understand where constraints or gluts will develop. Clients use the Crude Hub Model to make more informed decisions on pricing, storage, and trading because it provides insight into real-time pipeline utilization and capacity headroom.

We update crude oil insights on a frequent schedule – including weekly updates, monthly data refreshes, and quarterly deep-dive reports. For example, our Crude Oil Edge weekly report (free to subscribers) delivers the latest crude market developments straight to your inbox. Internally for clients, we continuously update our models with new production figures, pipeline filings, and export stats; then we publish monthly summary reports and a comprehensive quarterly outlook. This cadence ensures you’re working with the most current data and analysis, whether you’re making day-to-day trading calls or long-term investment decisions.

Yes – monitoring pipeline flows, capacities, and constraints is central to our crude analysis. Our models track every major crude pipeline and how full it’s running, highlighting any egress constraints from key basins. We also incorporate FERC pipeline data (Form 6) to analyze tariff volumes and performance for regulated lines. If a pipeline is nearing capacity or a new line is coming online, East Daley’s data will reflect that and project its impact on regional supply distribution. This means subscribers get an early heads-up on congestion issues or new takeaway opportunities that could affect basis differentials and crude marketing strategies.

It does. We include crude export volumes and refinery runs in our overall balance to ensure a complete picture of demand. For instance, our Crude Hub Model explicitly tracks flows into export terminals and out of export docks at the Gulf Coast, as well as deliveries into refining centers. We can tell you how much Permian oil is heading overseas versus to domestic refineries, and how changes in export capacity might affect inland prices. By linking upstream production to downstream refiners and global exports, East Daley helps you understand how U.S. crude fits into the bigger international market – which is crucial for anticipating price movements and infrastructure needs.

East Daley’s data effectively acts as an early-warning system for the crude market. Because we track leading indicators like rig activity, regional drilling trends, and pipeline build-outs, we can signal shifts in supply or capacity before they fully materialize in public metrics. For example, if rig counts start dropping in Tier 1 acreage, our analysis might warn of an upcoming production slowdown and its impact on specific midstream assets months in advance. Likewise, we gauge midstream sensitivity to these changes – showing which pipelines or storage hubs could see volumes fall or surge. By translating raw data into actionable insight (“if X continues, expect Y outcome”), we help traders and planners turn volatility into opportunity rather than risk.

A wide range of energy professionals rely on our crude oil insights – from trading teams and market analysts to midstream operators and strategic planners. Traders use East Daley data to gain an edge on supply/demand shifts and to identify arbitrage opportunities at hubs. Midstream companies (pipelines, storage operators) use our forecasts for capacity planning and investment decisions, ensuring they build or allocate resources where future flows will be. Upstream producers and investors also follow our crude analysis to guide drilling plans or evaluate asset performance under different scenarios. Essentially, anyone who needs a granular understanding of U.S. crude oil movements and pricing – and how to stay ahead of the curve – is a candidate for East Daley’s crude services.

Yes, we periodically release a Crude Oil Outlook whitepaper that highlights major trends and forward-looking insights for the U.S. crude market. This report is available for download on our website and covers key topics like production forecasts in top basins, infrastructure developments, and expected price impacts. It’s designed to give a strategic overview of where the crude market is headed. Additionally, as mentioned, our Crude Oil Edge is a free weekly email update providing a snippet of our ongoing analysis. These resources allow interested readers to sample East Daley’s crude expertise, with the full depth of data available to our subscribers via Energy Data Studio® or consulting.

East Daley takes a cross-commodity analytical approach, recognizing that oil, gas, and NGL markets are interconnected. Within our Energy Data Studio® platform, crude oil dashboards are linked with natural gas and NGL data so users can see relationships – for example, how increased shale oil production leads to more associated gas and NGLs. Our team often examines scenarios like “crude-to-gas ratios” or how NGL fractionation constraints might back up oil production. Because we provide all three commodity datasets in one place, clients can quickly pivot: if you’re looking at crude pipeline congestion, you can also check gas takeaway in the same region to fully understand midstream asset utilization. This integrated view ensures that decisions made in the crude space take into account the latest in gas and NGL fundamentals, and vice versa, which is a capability few other research firms offer.

Crude Oil Edge is East Daley’s complimentary weekly report that delivers timely crude market insights to your inbox. It’s essentially a taste of our crude analysis, covering recent shifts in production, pipeline flows, storage, and noteworthy market news each week. Subscribers to Crude Oil Edge get charts and commentary on things like weekly crude production changes, refinery utilization updates, or port export figures, all in a concise email. It’s free to sign up and is a great way to stay informed on U.S. crude fundamentals, even if you’re not yet a full East Daley client.