Trans Mountain has launched a binding open season seeking more firm transportation (FT) contracts ahead of a phased expansion of the Pacific export pipeline. The open season comes amid higher oil prices tied to Middle East conflict and growing oil production in Western Canada.
The open season will run through June 2 for capacity between Edmonton and delivery points in British Columbia. Trans Mountain aims to lock in FT contracts covering ~80–90% of the system’s current 890 Mb/d of capacity. Following the close, the company anticipates filing an application with the Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) in 3Q26.
The open season precedes a broader expansion planned in two stages: a drag-reducing agent (DRA) project targeted for service in 2027, followed by infrastructure expansions, including ~30 km (19 miles) of 36-inch pipe between Darfield and McLure, BC, plus 11 new pump stations across Alberta and British Columbia. The two-staged expansion will add ~300 Mb/d by YE28, taking total system capacity to ~1.19 MMb/d.
Trans Mountain had previously indicated that expansion discussions would begin closer to 2028, but accelerated the timeline as upstream production growth in Alberta encroaches on available egress. East Daley Analytics’ Crude Hub Model confirms this tightening: Pacific coast egress on Trans Mountain and the 2024 Trans Mountain expansion (TMX) averaged ~791 Mb/d in 4Q25, or ~80% utilization of current capacity (see figure).
More information is available on the Canadian market in the Crude Hub Model on Energy Data Studio. We expect flows will continue to fill the system as oil sands production steadily increases. This suggests the open season is primarily a response to structural supply growth rather than a short-term market signal.
Nevertheless, global developments support the timing. Ongoing disruptions tied to the Iran war, particularly constraints through the Strait of Hormuz, have tightened global crude markets and pushed prices higher, increasing demand for non-OPEC barrels. Canadian crude exports are disproportionately exposed to Asia, where the impacts of Middle Eastern supply disruptions are hitting hardest.
Recent ship-tracking data from Vortexa shows this pull is strengthening. Canada’s oil exports to China reached 315 Mb/d in March ‘26, up from 255 Mb/d in February, while South Korea volumes rose to 33 Mb/d, nearly double January levels (see figure at right). To date in 2026, China has accounted for ~73% of Canadian Pacific coast exports, followed by 21% to the US and 6% to South Korea. Overall, ~79% of exports have been shipped to Asia.
In this context, the conflict is not the primary driver of the expansion decision but acts as an accelerant. Rising Alberta production necessitates additional takeaway capacity, while stronger Asian demand and elevated global prices improve the commercial outlook for new barrels. The Trans Mountain system remains the only direct pipeline access point for Canadian crude to the Pacific Coast, reinforcing its strategic importance as producers seek diversification away from US-bound markets. – Amelia Johnson.
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