The 3Q earnings season approaches, what East Daley Analytics dubs “Christmas in October,” and the latest export data provides early insight into what will likely dominate discussions across the midstream space. Here’s what we’re seeing in the field.
Targa Resources (TRGP)
East Daley expects Targa to report a modest 2.7% Q-o-Q gain in NGL exports, maintaining steady market share despite ongoing volatility. The company’s 25 Mb/d debottleneck project will soon lift Galena Park export capacity to 500 Mb/d.
Looking further ahead, Targa’s 150 Mb/d dock expansion, scheduled for 2H27, aligns with its newly announced Speedway NGL pipeline, expected in service by 3Q27. These projects position TRGP for continued growth in export capacity and supply flexibility.
Energy Transfer (ET)
We expect ET to report a 26% increase in ethane exports and an 11% increase in LPG exports. The ethane uplift was largely driven by rising flows to China, consistent with ET’s close relationship with Satellite Chemical. ET’s recently completed Nederland Flexport expansion (early 3Q) contributed to growth. However, with overall infrastructure running at roughly 80% utilization, the key question is whether the company can sustain volumes as LPG arbitrage margins tighten and the spot market normalizes.
Enterprise Products (EPD)
EPD tells a tale of two commodities: ethane exports are forecasted up 10% while LPG exports fall 6% Q-o-Q. The early startup of the Neches River terminal underscores a strong global demand outlook for ethane, even as the LPG arbitrage window narrows, leaving ample upside for Neches River Phase 2.
However, EPD underperformed its two largest peers in the LPG export market. The company also cited lower spot rates, including one key contract renegotiated downward, signaling a bearish tone for LPG exports. While 85% of LPG capacity remains under long-term contract, the volume decline may reflect increased spot competition, likely from Energy Transfer.
See East Daley Analytics’ Financial Blueprint Models for a deeper review of sector performance ahead of 3Q25 earnings. – Julian Renton and London Spivey Tickers: EPD, ET, TRGP.
The Permian Basin at a Crossroads: Download the Latest White Paper
The Permian Basin is the heart of the US energy industry, supplying half of crude oil and NGL production and nearly 20% of natural gas. Yet market pressures are forcing changes, prompting billions in new pipeline investments and reorienting how operators approach the storied basin. East Daley’s new white paper, The Permian Basin at a Crossroads, is the first of a 3-part series looking at the shifts underway in the Permian. In this series, we reveal how LNG demand and AI data centers could transform Permian gas into a primary revenue driver. We also review the multi-billion-dollar infrastructure needed to unlock this shift, and what’s at stake for oil, gas and midstream operators. — Click here to download the The Permian Basin at a Crossroads white paper!
Get the Data Center Demand Monitor
The Data Center Demand Monitor is your go-to source for tracking data center projects and demand. Available as part of the Macro Supply & Demand Report, East Daley monitors and visualizes nearly 500 US data center projects. Use the Data Center Demand Monitor to forecast demand, identify pipeline corridors and track data center projects. — Request your demo now of the Data Center Demand Monitor!
The Daley Note
Subscribe to The Daley Note for energy insights delivered daily to your inbox. The Daley Note covers news, commodity prices, security prices and EDA research likely to affect markets in the short term.