The Daley Note

Japanese investors and disciplined public operators increasingly define the endgame in the Haynesville: scale, inventory depth, and integrated market access that can reliably supply LNG for the next two decades. Mitsubishi Corp.’s recent takeover of Aethon Energy for ~$5.2B in equity reflects that mindset, pairing a large Haynesville position with Mitsubishi’s broader North American platform in marketing, logistics, LNG and power.

The same conservative thesis underpinned Tokyo Gas subsidiary TG Natural Resources’ $2.7B acquisition of Rockcliff. The deal attracted Japanese capital to pay for scalable assets that can be underwritten through cycles, rather than optimized for near-term price swings.

The Aethon acquisition, announced Jan. 16, includes 380,000 acres in Louisiana and East Texas and ~2.1 Bcf/d of gas production. Mitsubishi is paying $7.5B for Aethon, including $2.3B in debt. The companies expect to close the transaction in 2Q26.

The Aethon and Rockcliff deals contrast with some private Haynesville E&Ps that are more willing to chase prices. Citadel’s $1.2B acquisition of Paloma, now operating as Apex Natural Gas, demonstrates a more reactive model: Activity ramps quickly when gas clears breakevens, and slows when prices fall below that threshold. Apex in mid-January was running 9 rigs to capitalize on improved economics after a pause in 2024 (see figure). However, most other privates do not have the same capital backing to deploy as many rigs, and so there is a limit on how fast total production will ramp when gas prices are high.

Meanwhile, the Japanese-backed privates, along with capital-disciplined publics such as Expand Energy (EXE) and Comstock Resources (CRK) are shoring up acreage and expanding into emerging fairways like the Western Haynesville. These companies prioritize runway and deliverability over rapid growth, which results in more steady rig programs. In a basin increasingly tethered to LNG exports, the market is separating into two camps: operators selling a disciplined, long-duration supply story to strategic buyers, and privates leaning into the price cycle to monetize nearer-term returns.

See East Daley Analytics’ Macro Supply & Demand Forecast to learn more about the gas market outlook. Over the next year, we expect the capital discipline approach to have the greater impact on the market, pushing prices as high as $5/MMBtu as new LNG facilities ramp while many of the largest Haynesville producers hold back. – Oren Pilant Tickers: CRK, EXE.