Canada’s federal government designated Pacific Link as a project of national interest on Oct. 1, moving the proposed 1 MMb/d crude pipeline into an expedited federal review process. Pacific Link would open new outlets for Canadian barrels outside the Midwest-Cushing-Gulf Coast corridor, creating new competition in the US market.
The proposal would run from Bruderheim, Alberta to a deepwater port near Delta, British Columbia, giving producers in Western Canada another route to global markets.
Trans Mountain, the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission and Pembina (PBA) are forming the company to develop Pacific Link. Pembina will hold a 10% interest through construction, with an option to increase its stake after the project enters service. Current planning allows construction to begin as early as September 2027 once regulatory approvals are in place.
The sponsors are developing Pacific Link as a complete export system. The concept includes ~777 miles of pipe, receipt and delivery terminals, and a new offshore marine loading facility capable of handling very large crude carriers (VLCCs). The dedicated terminal would give the project its own waterborne export capacity rather than relying on the Westridge terminal near Burnaby, BC. East Daley currently estimates the project could enter service around September 2031, assuming a successful review process.
Pacific Link would build on additional Canadian takeaway capacity under development. Trans Mountain has sanctioned a 90 Mb/d expansion for 2027, while another 210 Mb/d of capacity based on optimization could follow by late 2028. Prairie Connector could add another 465 Mb/d in early 2029. Capacity already exceeds crude oil production from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) in East Daley’s outlook, so Pacific Link would increase market optionality rather than relieving a near-term pipeline constraint.
WSCB crude throughput to Cushing averaged about 426 Mb/d in 2Q26, according to East Daley Analytics’ Crude Hub Model. Cushing also provides access to Gulf Coast refiners through the Seaway and Marketlink pipelines. Enbridge (ENB) is adding southbound capacity through Mainline Optimization Phase 1, while Phase 2 has been deferred.
See the Crude Hub Model to learn more. Pacific Link would not replace existing Cushing demand barrel for barrel. Instead, it would give Canadian producers more flexibility to move supply between Pacific export markets and traditional US routes. That will raise the value of Canadian crude, and make Cushing and the Gulf Coast less important as the marginal outlets for future Canadian production growth. – Amelia Johnson Tickers: ENB, PBA.
How Will Data Centers Affect Development in the Permian Basin?
Data centers are adding significant, non-intermittent demand for natural gas. What could that mean for Permian production and infrastructure?
Join East Daley on Oct. 28 at 10 am MT for a look at how growing gas demand could reshape the region’s natural gas, crude oil and NGL markets.
We’ll cover:
- Natural gas: Permian demand is growing from Gulf Coast pipeline expansions and gas-fired power generation supporting data centers. The basin could very become short gas – a strange paradox for a basin that has been notoriously constrained in the past.
- Crude: As gas demand and egress capacity grow, producers could shift toward gassier windows in the Delaware and Midland basins, producing more associated gas alongside lower oil volumes. We’ll consider how that could ease crude egress pressure, and how much new oil pipeline capacity might be needed beyond potential brownfield expansions.
- NGLs: Higher Waha prices could encourage more ethane rejection, while new very large ethane carriers (VLECs) are expected to be built over the next several years. We’ll explore the tug-of-war between rejection at the wellhead and growing demand at the dock — and what it could mean for ethane production.
Register now before spots fill up to hear East Daley’s analysis of the infrastructure and production shifts shaping the Permian.
One Market, One Model: Gain a Holistic View of North America Supply & Demand
East Daley Analytics is pleased to announce the Canada Supply & Demand report. The Canada S&D completes our North American model, providing a fully integrated supply and demand forecast for crude oil and natural gas. East Daley follows molecules from Canadian production through US infrastructure to end-markets. Clients now have a continental view to anticipate trends, from how Canadian gas is reshaping Midwest markets, to how crude imports flow to Gulf Coast refiners. The Canada S&D report and dataset is available exclusively in Energy Data Studio. Reach out to learn more about East Daley’s North American energy model.
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