Executive Summary:
Infrastructure: Mitsubishi’s recent takeover of Aethon Energy for ~$5.2B reflects the growing influence of Japanese capital in the Haynesville.
Rigs: The US rig count increased by 1 for the week of Feb. 21, bringing the total rig count to 520.
Flows: US natural gas volumes in pipeline samples declined 1.3% W-o-W, averaging 81.7 Bcf/d for the week ending March 1.
Storage: Traders and analysts expect the EIA to report a 123 Bcf storage withdrawal for the week ending Feb. 27.
Infrastructure:
Japanese investors and disciplined public operators increasingly define the endgame in the Haynesville: scale, inventory depth, and integrated market access that can reliably supply LNG for the next two decades. Mitsubishi’s recent takeover of Aethon Energy for ~$5.2B in equity reflects that mindset, pairing a large Haynesville position with Mitsubishi’s broader North American platform in marketing, logistics, LNG and power.
The same conservative thesis underpinned Tokyo Gas subsidiary TG Natural Resources’ $2.7B acquisition of Rockcliff. The deal attracted Japanese capital to pay for scalable assets that can be underwritten through cycles, rather than optimized for near-term price swings.
The Aethon acquisition, announced Jan. 16, includes 380,000 acres in Louisiana and East Texas and ~2.1 Bcf/d of gas production. Mitsubishi is paying $7.5B for Aethon, including $2.3B in debt. The companies expect to close the transaction in 2Q26.
The Aethon and Rockcliff deals contrast with some private Haynesville E&Ps that are more willing to chase prices. Citadel’s $1.2B acquisition of Paloma, now operating as Apex, demonstrates a more reactive model: Activity ramps quickly when gas clears breakevens, and slows when prices fall below that threshold. Apex is now running 6 rigs to capitalize on improved economics after a pause in 2024 (see figure above). However, most other privates do not have the same capital backing to deploy as many rigs, and so there is a limit on how fast total production will ramp when gas prices are high.
Meanwhile, the Japanese-backed privates, along with capital-disciplined publics such as Expand Energy (EXE) and Comstock Resources (CRK) are shoring up acreage and expanding into emerging fairways like the Western Haynesville. These companies prioritize runway and deliverability over rapid growth, which results in more steady rig programs. In a basin increasingly tethered to LNG exports, the market is separating into two camps: operators selling a disciplined, long-duration supply story to strategic buyers, and privates leaning into the price cycle to monetize nearer-term returns.
Over the next year, East Daley Analytics expects the capital discipline approach to have the greater impact on the market, pushing prices as high as $5/MMBtu as new LNG facilities ramp while the largest Haynesville producers hold back.
Rigs:
The US rig count increased by 1 for the week of Feb. 21, bringing the total rig count to 520. The Permian (-3) and Powder River (-1) lost rigs while the Anadarko (+2), ArkLaTex (+2), Barnett (+1) and Eagle Ford (+1) gained rigs W-o-W.
At the company level, Kinetik (-4), Williams (-3), Targa Resources (-2), DT Midstream (-1) and Producers Midstream (-1) lost rigs while Phillips 66 (+2), Enterprise (+2), MPLX (+2), Energy Transfer (+1), Salt Creek Midstream (+1) and XTO Energy (+1) gained rigs W-o-W.
See East Daley Analytics’ weekly Rig Activity Tracker for more information on rigs by basin and company.
Flows:
Note: East Daley has vetted our US pipeline samples and upgraded the data tagging, resulting in a more robust capture of production trends from the daily samples.
US natural gas volumes in pipeline samples declined 1.3% W-o-W, averaging 81.7 Bcf/d for the week ending March 1.
Flows in gas basins declined 1.2% to 51.2 Bcf/d. The Marcellus+Utica sample decreased 1.3% to 38.7 Bcf/d, while the Haynesville sample was flat at 11.6 Bcf/d.
Samples in liquids basins declined 0.4% W-o-W to 22.8 Bcf/d. The Permian sample declined 2.7%, while the Anadarko sample increased 2.3%.
Storage:
Traders and analysts expect the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to report a 123 Bcf storage withdrawal for the week ending Feb. 27. A 123 Bcf draw would increase the deficit to the 5-year average from -7 Bcf to -34 Bcf. The deficit to last year would flip to a surplus of 146 Bcf. The surplus to last year would slip slightly to 124 Bcf.
Based on weekly withdrawals, the Lower 48 will have 1,895 Bcf in storage at the end of February. With four and a half weeks left in the winter withdrawal season, weather is increasingly standing in the way of another significant withdrawal. From a heating degree day perspective, X Weather (formerly Maxar) says March heating degree days (HDDs) are expected to total less than both the 10- and 30-year averages. February weather was also warmer than the 10-year normal on a national level, though regions in the eastern US saw below-normal temperatures that led to higher gas burns. East Daley expects storage to be in deficit to the five-year average at the end of March, but by less than 60 Bcf as warm weather continues to limit withdrawals.
See East Daley’s latest Macro Supply & Demand Report for more on the winter market outlook.
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