Executive Summary:
Infrastructure: Golden Pass has started producing LNG, signaling a change in how gas flows at the Texas-Louisiana border.
Rigs: The US rig count decreased by 2 for the week of March 28, bringing the total count to 516.
Storage: Traders and analysts expect the EIA to report a 45 Bcf injection for the week ending April 3.
Infrastructure:
Golden Pass LNG achieved first LNG production from Train 1 on March 30, with an initial cargo expected to depart in 2Q26. East Daley expects Train 1 of the QatarEnergy–ExxonMobil (XOM) joint venture to ramp feedgas demand to over 800 MMcf/d in 2Q26, and Trains 2 and 3 to begin service in 2027. Pipeline flows to the project near Sabine Pass, TX have grown to nearly 350 MMcf/d in early April 2026.
The timing carries geopolitical significance. Reuters reports that Italy’s Edison, which holds a 6.4 Bcm/year (~620 MMcf/d) LNG offtake contract with QatarEnergy, will begin receiving Golden Pass cargoes at the Adriatic LNG terminal as early as June, helping offset missed Qatari deliveries caused by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. QatarEnergy has declared force majeure on long-term contracts to Italy, Belgium, South Korea and China, with Iranian attacks reportedly knocking out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity. The Edison contract is equivalent to the nameplate export capacity of one train at Golden Pass.
For regional gas balances, Golden Pass Pipeline has historically functioned as a wheeling system around the Texas-Louisiana border, receiving gas from the Gulf Run and Midcoast pipelines and redelivering to Tennessee Gas, Texas Eastern (TETCO), Transcontinental (Transco), and Natural Gas Pipeline Company of America (NGPL).
As LNG production ramps, this dynamic is expected to shift. Receipts from Gulf Run have remained flat around 700 MMcf/d, while Midcoast receipts (which started in 2026) have grown to nearly 200 MMcf/d. Meanwhile, deliveries to Transco, TETCO and Tennessee have all declined in 2026, suggesting that gas previously wheeled to downstream pipelines is increasingly being redirected to the Golden Pass terminal. As the Train 1 ramp continues and Trains 2–3 come online, Golden Pass will become a meaningful demand sink for Haynesville supply, tightening the regional balance.
Rigs:
The US rig count decreased by 2 for the week of March 28, bringing the total rig count to 514. The Bakken (-1), Permian (-1) and Uinta (-1) lost rigs while the ArkLaTex (+1) gained rigs W-o-W.
At the company level, Phillips 66 (-4), Kinder Morgan (-3), Kinetik (-2), Targa Resources (-1), ONEOK (-1), Williams (-1), Summit Midstream (-1), Tallgrass (-1) and FourPoint Resources (-1) lost rigs while Energy Transfer (+5), Enterprise (+1), MPLX (+1), Western Midstream (+1), Harvest Midstream (+1) and DT Midstream (+1) gained rigs W-o-W.
See East Daley Analytics’ weekly Rig Activity Tracker for more information on rigs by basin and company.
Storage:
Traders and analysts expect the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to report a 45 Bcf injection for the week ending April 3. A 45 Bcf injection would extend the surplus to the 5-year average extend the surplus to the five-year average for a second week in a row – from 54 Bcf after last week’s report to 86 Bcf. The surplus to last year would decrease by 8 Bcf to 88 Bcf.
Both cash prices and the prompt month have given up ground over the past week. The May ’26 Henry Hub contract traded near $2.87/MMBtu at publication, and Henry Hub spot was $2.86. With mild shoulder-season weather in most regions, there is not a lot to chirp about in the market outside of LNG developments.
LNG feedgas flows dropped this week due to maintenance on NGPL and Creole Trail pipelines. Maintenance work at Compressor Station 302 on NGPL will take place for the entire month of April, so LNG feedgas volumes will continue to press up against capacity.
Storage injections over the next several weeks are likely to increase the surplus to the five-year average. Barring a late April or early May heat wave, prices should not wander much higher than $3.00/MMBtu.
See East Daley’s latest Macro Supply & Demand Report for more on the market outlook.
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