Golden Pass LNG is drawing more feedgas this fall, but a slow ramp raises questions about how much demand the terminal will add this winter.
Gas deliveries to Golden Pass averaged 0.52 Bcf/d in October, up from 0.34 Bcf/d in September and a 0.24 Bcf/d average during the first nine months of 2026. The gains mark progress as the Texas export facility completes commissioning on Train 1. However, limited summer shipments and the timing of the next two trains suggest downside risk to the near-term ramp in East Daley Analytics’ LNG Tracker forecast in Energy Data Studio.
The QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil (XOM) project shipped its first cargo on April 22. Once fully operational, three trains will provide 18.1 Mtpa of LNG production capacity, equivalent to ~2.57 Bcf/d of feedgas demand in East Daley’s project tracker. The operator has said the remaining trains will follow stable operations at Train 1.
So far, the export ramp has been uneven. East Daley’s analysis of Department of Energy (DOE) data shows Golden Pass loaded five cargoes totaling 17.3 Bcf through July. Two cargoes loaded in July, and another two cargoes departed in August in the DOE data.
Golden Pass took 95 days to release its fifth cargo following the inaugural LNG shipment, compared with 37–66 days for the first trains at Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron, Freeport and Cove Point LNG (see figure at right). The comparison points to a slower initial ramp than those earlier large-train projects.
October’s higher feedgas intake is encouraging, although it does not establish how much LNG Train 1 is producing. Site-wide receipts of 0.52 Bcf/d equal ~61% of Train 1’s modeled feedgas capacity. However, gas is also consumed in commissioning and other plant operations, so those volumes likely don’t translate one to one in LNG output. Cargo volumes in October will help determine whether the higher intake is translating into sustained exports.
The next major demand increase depends on Train 2. ExxonMobil indicated in September that Train 2 would start up in 1H27, followed by Train 3 in 2H27. That schedule places the next stages of growth beyond much of the coming winter, and later than the capacity additions currently reflected in East Daley’s tracker.
In the Macro Supply & Demand report, we expect Train 2 to add capacity in December 2026 and Train 3 in March 2027, with feedgas increasing from 0.97 Bcf/d in December to 1.6 Bcf/d in March. Reaching that demand level would require both sustained improvement in Train 1 utilization and a rapid contribution from Train 2. Train 1’s early cargo history suggests a gradual ramp is more likely.
For the natural gas market, what matters is when Golden Pass becomes a consistent source of baseload demand growth. A slower ramp would leave more gas in the domestic balance than East Daley’s current forecast assumes, easing winter tightening at the margin and shifting more LNG demand growth into later 2027. Sustained feedgas receipts and shorter intervals between cargoes will be the clearest signs that Golden Pass is ready to accelerate. – Emily Cecchini Tickers: XOM.
Data Center Headwinds – Could They Ripple Through Energy Infrastructure?
Data centers are driving expectations for major new power generation projects — but what if projects are delayed? The effects could reach far beyond the data center sector.
Join East Daley on Wednesday, Nov. 18 at 10 am MT for a look at how data center headwinds and power generation needs could reshape energy infrastructure and production.
We’ll explore:
- Power demand and project timing: What could delay data center buildouts, and would that affect expected demand for new generation?
- Natural gas infrastructure: Could delays put natural gas projects at risk where data centers and power utilities are the main downstream customers — especially projects already at FID or still in wait?
- Cross-commodity spillovers: If gas demand growth is pushed out, what does that mean for midstream crude and NGL project growth — and for overall hydrocarbon production?
Delays in data center and power project development could ripple through the infrastructure pipeline, changing the timing and scale of investment across multiple commodity markets.
Reserve your spot now to join the discussion.
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