East Daley Analytics projects data centers will drive 4.2–6.1 Bcf/d of additional gas demand by 2030 to fuel roughly 81 GW of new power generation capacity. In response, midstream companies are pursuing projects with markedly different risk profiles and timelines.
Williams’ (WMB) Power Express expansion on the Transcontinental pipeline will add 950 MMcf/d by 3Q30 to serve Northern Virginia’s “Data Center Alley,” where developers have announced over 20 GW of IT load (see pipeline map from East Daley’s Data Center Demand Monitor). Underwritten at a sub-4.0x build multiple and backed by 20– to 30-year contracts with utilities, the project shifts volume risk onto offtakers while securing stable, decades-long toll revenues.
TC Energy (TRP) takes a similarly conservative approach for the Northwoods project on ANR Pipeline. The $900MM expansion would add 400 MMcf/d by late 2029. Funded at a 6.0x multiple and implying about $1.25/Mcf-day (based on ANR’s 82% EBITDA margin), Northwoods is structured around 20– to 30-year offtakes with municipal and investor-owned utilities planning combined-cycle and peaking plants. By locking in long-tenor utility deals, TRP insulates its pipeline from project-specific load risk.
By contrast, WMB’s Project Socrates in Ohio adopts a faster, integrated model. Pairing 400 MW of gas-fired generation with an intrastate pipeline, the project targets in-service in 2H26 — just 18 months after FID. With a $1.6B investment at a 5.0x build multiple, Socrates is underpinned by 10– to 15-year contracts that shield WMB from commodity price volatility but expose it to renewal risk post-expiration. By capturing margins across gathering, transport and generation, WMB broadens its counterparty set and accelerates delivery, even as the shorter contract tenors introduce greater renewal uncertainty.
These three projects highlight a strategic divide: TRP and peers like Kinder Morgan (KMI) rely on long-term, utility-backed contracts to de-risk capacity demand, while WMB’s generation-plus-pipeline approach trades some offtake certainty for speed and broader market access. As data centers reshape power markets, each model’s success will hinge on balancing revenue security with execution agility.
See East Daley Analytics’ Data Center Demand Monitor and Macro Supply & Demand Report for more information about data centers and the demand outlook. – Zach Krause Tickers: KMI, TRP, WMB.
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