Executive Summary:
Infrastructure: East Daley is tracking nearly a dozen coal-to-gas conversion projects that will support structural demand growth over the next several years.
Rigs: The US rig count decreased by 7 for the week of March 21, bringing the total count to 516.
Flows: US natural gas volumes in pipeline samples increased 0.3% W-o-W, averaging 80.1 Bcf/d for the week ending March 29.
Infrastructure:
Despite vocal support from President Trump, the coal industry faces a bleak future as utilities convert older power plants to burn natural gas. East Daley Analytics is tracking nearly a dozen coal-to-gas conversion projects that will support structural demand growth over the next several years.
Roughly 7.4 GW of coal plant capacity is slated for conversion to natural gas across the Lower 48. East Daley estimates that, assuming 60–75% combined-cycle utilization, these projects could add 750–930 MMcf/d of incremental gas demand by 2030 (see figure below).
Along with the boom in data centers, coal plant conversions are a key factor supporting our forecast for demand growth from the electric sector. In the Macro Supply & Demand Report, East Daley forecasts that gas demand for power generation will increase to 41 Bcf/d by 2030, a 5 Bcf/d gain from average consumption of ~36 Bcf/d in 2025.
The conversion projects we’re tracking are located near established interstate pipeline corridors, reinforcing the long-term call on existing gas infrastructure as coal use phases down.
Some noteworthy coal conversion projects include:
- In Arkansas, Entergy’s 754-MW Jefferson Power Station will replace the White Bluff coal plant by 2028. The project aligns with growing industrial activity and proposed data centers in the area, and will anchor new baseload demand for the Enable Gas Transmission and Mississippi River Transmission pipelines.
- In Texas, Vistra is repowering the Coleto Creek plant in Lavaca County into a 630-MW gas facility while expanding its Permian Basin plant in Ward County. These facilities are within reach of the Natural Gas Pipeline of America (NGPL), El Paso, Northern Natural Gas, Transwestern, and Texas Eastern Transmission (TETCO) pipelines.
- In the Southeast, the Tennessee Valley Authority is advancing the 1.4 GW gas project at the Cumberland Fossil Plant in Tennessee, while Georgia Power continues to convert coal units at Plant Yates in Georgia. Both projects are within the Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line (Transco) and Southern Natural system footprints.
- In Indiana, AES is repowering the Petersburg Generation Station, while Duke Energy is replacing the Cayuga Generating Station with natural gas turbines. The two projects will add 2 GW of gas-fired capacity. The facilities are near several interstate pipelines, including Midwestern Gas Transmission, TETCO, Texas Gas Transmission, Panhandle Eastern, and Rockies Express.
- Western markets show the same shift to gas. TransAlta is converting its Centralia plant in Washington, and PacifiCorp is transitioning the Naughton coal plant in Wyoming to gas. The sites are located near the Northwest Pipeline and Gas Transmission Northwest (GTN) service corridors.
These projects are part of a long-term shift away from coal in the power mix. US coal generation capacity peaked at roughly 290 GW in 2011 and has since declined by about 37% to ~184 GW in 2025, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Over the same period, natural gas has expanded its role in the generation stack, accounting for 43% of utility-scale power generation in 2024.
The Trump administration is trying to stem the losses for the coal industry. On Feb. 12, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) revoked the “endangerment finding,” a 2009 regulation determining that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are a threat to public health. The rule underpins EPA’s authority to regulate emissions from facilities like power plants; burning coal is the largest sources of carbon emissions, so the revocation would disproportionately benefit these emitters.
The recent EPA ruling follows other efforts by the administration to support coal. In September 2025, the Department of Energy announced $625MM in funds to support the coal sector, including $350MM to recommission or retrofit older coal plants.
It’s unclear if these measures will halt the sector’s decline. Most of the coal plants targeted for shutdown are 40-60 years old and have reached the end of their economic life. While fewer regulations would help at the margin, these coal assets burden utilities with higher operating costs compared to modern combined-cycle plants.
Meanwhile, the future is bright for gas. The transition underway will support growing baseload demand from data centers, industrial expansions and economic growth, reinforcing the role of gas in maintaining dispatchable generation.
Rigs:
The US rig count decreased by 7 for the week of March 21, bringing the total rig count to 516. The Permian (-3), Anadarko (-1), ArkLaTex (-1), DJ (-1), Eagle Ford (-1) and Marcellus+Utica (-1) lost rigs while the Powder River (+2) gained rigs W-o-W.
At the company level, EPD (-4), PSX (-2), MPLX (-2), TRGP (-1), WMB (-1), M6 Midstream (-1), Salt Creek Midstream (-1) and Brazos Midstream (-1) lost rigs while WES (+3), ET (+2), Fasken Oil & Ranch (+1), Harvest Midstream (+1), Mustang (+1) and DTM (+1) gained rigs W-o-W.
See East Daley Analytics’ weekly Rig Activity Tracker for more information on rigs by basin and company.
Flows:
US natural gas volumes in pipeline samples increased 0.3% W-o-W, averaging 80.1 Bcf/d for the week ending March 29.
Flows in gas basins increased 0.6% to 50.6 Bcf/d. The ArkLaTex (Haynesville) sample increased 1.9% to 11.4 Bcf/d, and the Marcellus+Utica slid 0.3% W-o-W to 38.5 Bcf/d.
Samples in liquids basins declined 0.2% to 22.0 Bcf/d. The Permian sample decreased 0.3%, while the Eagle Ford sample gained 3.9%.
Storage:
Traders and analysts expect the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to report a net injection of 34 Bcf for the week ending March 27. A 34 Bcf injection would extend the surplus to the 5-year average to 52 Bcf. The surplus to last year would increase to 94 Bcf.
Despite a growing storage surplus, gas prices have been slow to move to the downside. According to a handful of weather forecasts, temperatures over the next 15 days will be on the warmer side to start the injection season, which could lead to fewer heating degree days (HDDs) and more cooling degree days (CDDs) and spur a modest increase in gas-fired power burn. In the shoulder season, modest weather deviations generally hold less sway on price, so the fact that Henry Hub is still pricing over $3.00/MMBtu as the surplus grows is a bit of an anomaly.
The strength in gas prices likely reflects a slight war premium, given growing levels of LNG feedgas demand and a constrained global market. With Train 5 at Corpus Christi reaching full capacity and Golden Pass LNG’s first train starting service this month, incremental structural demand is growing and is not impacted solely by weather.
See East Daley’s latest Macro Supply & Demand Report for more on the market outlook.
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