Executive Summary:
Infrastructure: The Crossroads pipeline, which stretches from northwest Ohio to Chicago, has announced a non-binding open season that would see the 300 MMcf/d pipe expand by 1.5 Bcf/d if constructed.
Rigs: The US rig count decreased by 1 for the week of Mar. 7, bringing the total rig count to 522.
Flows: US natural gas volumes in pipeline samples dropped 0.4% W-o-W, averaging 82.0 Bcf/d for the week ending March 15.
Infrastructure:
Crossroads is a 300 MMcf/d pipeline owned and operated by TC Energy (TRP) that spans just over 200 miles from northwest Ohio to the Indiana/Illinois border. Crossroads has historically distributed gas from the Northeast into the greater Chicago area, but now the little pipeline may be undergoing a big transformation.
On Feb. 9, Crossroads Pipeline posted a non-binding open season that could see it expand by 1.5 Bcf/d by 4Q30. Crossroads proposes to loop the mainline and add infrastructure on TC Energy’s existing pipeline system to expand delivery to ANR’s Joliet hub near Chicago, as well as to delivery points on Northern Border Pipeline between Illinois and South Dakota. The project would also add a new receipt point with Rover Pipeline in Defiance, OH and move gas from Rockies Express Pipeline (REX) northbound onto ANR’s Southeast Mainline (see project map from the open season announcement).
Demand in Illinois is expected to grow significantly in the coming years. East Daley is currently tracking 19 planned data center projects in Illinois in our Data Center Tracker, most of these in Chicago or the surrounding counties. These projects would total almost 9 GW of power demand by 2035, translating to roughly 1.5-2 Bcf/d of demand if all were to rely on gas-fired generation. Data center development in Wisconsin, which East Daley first covered in December, will also draw gas from Chicago, adding further value to pipelines able to bring additional supply into the region.
Project Boosts Competition for Northeast Gas
While expanding Crossroads makes sense from a demand point of view, the project could face upstream constraints that limit its success. Rover, which will add a new meter as part of the expansion, regularly runs at over 90% utilization. This leaves little capacity available to transport additional volumes on an expanded Crossroads without Rover itself expanding.
Meanwhile, volumes flowing through REX’s Zone 3, which covers the eastern end of the pipe, have historically run at capacity. Those volumes declined in 2024, with losses compounded when Mountain Valley Pipeline entered service that June and opened additional egress out of the Northeast, drawing some supply away and opening seasonal capacity on REX. However, the seasonality could pose issues in supplying gas to a Crossroads expansion regularly.
Regardless, the project’s utilization of TC Energy’s system, in addition to third-party pipeline lease agreements, provides a sturdy foundation to support the expansion. Existing interconnects with ANR, Trunkline, Columbia Gas and Panhandle also provide the pipeline with supply flexibility. Meanwhile, power demand growth in Chicago and further downstream seems likely as data center developers continue marching projects forward.
Rigs:
The US rig count decreased by 1 for the week of Mar. 7, bringing the total rig count to 522. The Marcellus+Utica (-2), ArkLaTex (-1) and Permian (-1) lost rigs while the Anadarko (+1), Barnett (+1), Eagle Ford (+1) and Marcellus – NE PA (+1) gained rigs W-o-W.
At the company level, OKE (-2), KMI (-2), WES (-2), MPLX (-1), WMB (-1), KNTK (-1), Mustang (-1) and DTM (-1) lost rigs while EPD (+4), ET (+2), Salt Creek Midstream (+1), Canes Midstream (+1), MTSUY (+1) and Fasken Oil and Ranch (+1) gained rigs W-o-W.
See East Daley Analytics’ weekly Rig Activity Tracker for more information on rigs by basin and company.
Flows:
Note: East Daley has vetted our US pipeline samples and upgraded the data tagging, resulting in a more robust capture of production trends from the daily samples.
US natural gas volumes in pipeline samples dropped 0.4% W-o-W, averaging 82.0 Bcf/d for the week ending March 15.
Flows in gas basins decreased 0.3% to 51.6 Bcf/d. The Haynesville sample decreased 0.2% to 12.0 Bcf/d, and the Marcellus+Utica lost 0.3% W-o-W at 38.7 Bcf/d.
Samples in liquids basins declined 0.1% W-o-W to 22.6 Bcf/d. The Permian sample decreased 1.5%, while the Anadarko sample declined 0.5%.
See East Daley’s latest Macro Supply & Demand Report for more on the market outlook.
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