Infrastructure: US butane exports set three consecutive record highs this spring, rising from 661 Mb/d in March to 815 Mb/d in April and 893 Mb/d in May.
New Product: East Daley has added five new tabs to the NGL Purity Product Forecast, including prebuilt basin-level area charts, waterfall charts, annual exit and annual average tables, and a dedicated ethane rejection tab. Clients can access the updated Excel file here: https://portal.eastdaley.com/canvas/ngl-purity-product. For additional detail, see the section below or contact Julian or Sam using the contact information at the end of this newsletter.
Exports: NGL exports decreased 6% W-o-W for the week ending Aug. 14.
Rigs: The total US rig increased to 603 for the week of Aug. 15. Liquids-driven basins increased to 469, up 4 rigs W-o-W.
Infrastructure:
US butane exports set three consecutive record highs this spring, rising from 661 Mb/d in March to 815 Mb/d in April and 893 Mb/d in May. That represents a 35% increase in just two months, with India emerging as one of the largest sources of incremental demand.
India’s pull on butane is not simply a temporary response to disrupted supply. It is rooted in the physical characteristics of its LPG market.
India relies heavily on LPG for residential cooking, with propane and butane blended together to meet local specifications. In warmer climates, butane becomes particularly valuable because its boiling point is much higher than propane, at roughly 31°F vs -44°F for propane. That gives butane a lower vapor pressure at a given temperature and makes it well suited for storage, transportation and use in hot climates.
The broader rule of thumb is simple: Warmer LPG markets tend to favor more butane, while colder markets require more propane to maintain adequate vaporization.
Butane also contains more energy density than propane, supporting the steady flame characteristics valued in residential cooking. More importantly, India’s existing LPG storage, distribution and cylinder infrastructure is already designed around a relatively butane-rich LPG mix.
In East Daley’s view, the current shift in trade flows is more significant than a temporary supply disruption.
We expect Indian demand for US butane to remain elevated even as Persian Gulf supply normalizes. Recent disruptions have highlighted the concentration risk associated with relying heavily on Middle Eastern supply, accelerating efforts by major consuming countries to diversify toward the US Gulf Coast.
Reuters has reported that India plans to source roughly one-quarter of its LPG imports from the United States in 2027. If realized, that represents a structural change in the Atlantic Basin LPG trade rather than a short-lived response to geopolitical disruption.
The implication for US butane is significant. The US Gulf Coast is increasingly becoming a strategic source of supply diversification for India, creating a durable new demand pull supported by climate, infrastructure and energy security.
New Product:
East Daley has added five new tabs to the NGL Purity Product Forecast, our NGL production model, making it easier to analyze historical trends and forecasted changes across the US, PADDs, basins and sub-basins. The new tabs include:
- Ethane Rejection: A prebuilt workflow showing historical and forecasted ethane rejection across the Lower 48.
- Area Charts: Prebuilt charts showing purity product production and ethane recovery vs rejection. Views are available for the total US, PADD, basin and sub-basin levels.
- Waterfall Charts: Prebuilt waterfall charts highlighting changes in supply by purity product across the US, PADDs, basins and sub-basins (see figure below).
- NGL Annual Exits: A table showing annual exit production by NGL purity product for the US, PADDs, basins and sub-basins, including Y-o-Y changes in both percentage and volume.
To access these new features, download the latest NGL Purity Product file at the link below. The five new tabs are located on the far right side of the workbook.
https://portal.eastdaley.com/canvas/ngl-purity-product
Exports:
NGL exports decreased 6.0% W-o-W for the week ending Aug. 14, with lower LPG exports offsetting gains in ethane.
LPG exports fell 14%, led by a 41% decline at ET Marcus Hook.
Ethane exports increased increased 17% W-o-W, driven by a 676% increase at Marcus Hook (~115 Mb/d).
Rigs:
The total US rig count increased to 603 the week of Aug. 15. Liquids-driven basins increased to 469, up 4 rigs W-o-W.
- Anadarko (-2): American Warrior, Upland Operating
- Bakken (+2): Petro-Hunt, Zavanna Energy
- Eagle Ford (+1): Cimarron Engineering
- Permian (+1):
- Delaware (+2): Continental Resources, Perun Energy, VF Petroleum
- Midland (-1): Exxon
