Infrastructure: The global ethane shipping fleet is entering its largest expansion cycle to date, removing a key constraints on future US ethane exports.
New Product: East Daley has added five new tabs to the NGL Purity Product Forecast, including prebuilt basin-level area charts, waterfall charts, annual exit and annual average tables, and a dedicated ethane rejection tab. Clients can access the updated Excel file here: https://portal.eastdaley.com/canvas/ngl-purity-product. For additional detail, see the section below or contact Julian or Sam using the contact information at the end of this newsletter.
Exports: US NGL exports increased slightly by 1.9% W-o-W for the week ending Sept. 18.
Infrastructure:
The global ethane shipping fleet is entering its largest expansion cycle to date, removing a key physical constraints on future US ethane exports.
East Daley Analytics’ vessel tracker shows that 11 very large ethane carriers (VLECs) have been delivered so far in 2026, adding ~1.09 MMcm of cargo capacity. The new carriers have increased the delivered fleet from 40 ethane vessels at the end of 2025 to 51 today, and expanded global VLEC carrying capacity by roughly 28%.
Two additional vessels are currently commissioning and are expected to enter service before year end. They would bring the fleet to 53 vessels and ~5.13 MMcm of capacity, a roughly 33% increase from YE25.
The larger wave arrives in 2027. East Daley currently tracks 21 vessels scheduled for delivery next year, representing ~2.49 MMcm of additional cargo capacity. If those vessels arrive on schedule, global ethane shipping capacity would reach 7.61 MMcm by the end of 2027, nearly double YE25 levels.
A big share of the growth is coming from larger ethane vessels. Eastern Pacific Shipping alone has eight 150,000-cm ultra-large ethane carriers (ULECs) tied to Satellite Chemical that are scheduled for delivery, representing 1.2 MMcm of capacity. The broader newbuild list also includes vessels tied to Pacific Gas, AW Shipping, Purus, Reliance, MOL, MISC, SP Chemicals and Seaspan.
The fleet expansion matters for the US ethane market because vessel availability has historically been one of the key constraints on export growth. As more VLECs enter the fleet, US exporters gain additional access to fast-growing Asian petrochemical demand, particularly in China.
The shipping expansion also aligns with growing US export infrastructure. Enterprise Products (EPD) has added ethane export capacity through Neches River, while additional terminal expansions are planned over the next several years. Together, more ships and more terminal capacity create a clear path toward structurally higher US ethane exports.
Panama Canal Adds Wrinkle to Ethane Trade
The expansion in new vessels will not translate one for one into additional export volumes.
Most VLECs moving between the US Gulf Coast and Asia prefer the Panama Canal because it significantly reduces sailing distance. However, VLECs are too large for the original Panamax locks and must use the larger Neopanamax locks, putting ethane vessels in direct competition for transit slots with container ships, LNG carriers and very large gas carriers (VLGCs).
Availability through the Panama Canal has tightened as lower rainfall has reduced water available for lock operations. As a result, some gas carriers are increasingly taking the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope.
For a voyage from the US Gulf Coast to China, routing around the Cape can add roughly two weeks each way compared with the Panama route. On a round trip, that can add close to a month of additional sailing time.
The additional transit has a meaningful impact on effective fleet capacity. A vessel completing a roughly 60-day Panama round trip could theoretically make about six voyages per year. Extend that voyage toward 85 to 90 days through the Cape, and annual vessel turns fall closer to four.
In other words, more vessels do not necessarily translate directly into more export cargoes. Part of the 2026 and 2027 fleet expansion may simply be absorbed by higher ton miles and longer round trips.
That creates an important dynamic for the US ethane market. The VLEC buildout is removing a major structural constraint on exports, but the Panama could slow how quickly that new capacity converts into incremental demand.
By the end of 2027, the global ethane fleet could have nearly twice the carrying capacity vs the end of 2025. The question is increasingly not whether there will be enough ships to move US ethane, but how efficiently those ships can reach the customers waiting on the other side of the world.
New Product:
East Daley has added five new tabs to the NGL Purity Product Forecast, our NGL production model, making it easier to analyze historical trends and forecasted changes across the US, PADDs, basins and sub-basins. The new tabs include:
- Ethane Rejection: A prebuilt workflow showing historical and forecasted ethane rejection across the Lower 48.
- Area Charts: Prebuilt charts showing purity product production and ethane recovery vs rejection. Views are available for the total US, PADD, basin and sub-basin levels.
- Waterfall Charts: Prebuilt waterfall charts highlighting changes in supply by purity product across the US, PADDs, basins and sub-basins (see figure below).
- NGL Annual Exits: A table showing annual exit production by NGL purity product for the US, PADDs, basins and sub-basins, including Y-o-Y changes in both percentage and volume.
To access these new features, download the latest NGL Purity Product file at the link below. The five new tabs are located on the far right side of the workbook.
https://portal.eastdaley.com/canvas/ngl-purity-product
Exports:
NGL exports increased by 1.9% W-o-W for the week ending Sept. 18. LPG exports decreased 4.5% and ethane exports increased 25.5%.
ET Nederland posted a 50.2% increase in LPG exports, while all other terminals declined, resulting in a 4.5% decrease in total LPG exports W-o-W.
On the ethane side, nearly all terminals posted increases. ET Nederland and Orbit exports increased 50.3%, while ET Marcus Hook increased 40.5%. As a result, total ethane exports rose 25.5% W-o-W.
