Kinder Morgan (KMI) is moving forward with the $1.7B Trident Intrastate Pipeline at a total capacity of 1.5 Bcf/d. The project will move Permian gas further east to serve growing LNG export demand and address a looming supply buildup in the Katy market.
KMI announced the Trident decision in the company’s 4Q24 earnings. The greenfield project is expected to begin service in 1Q27, pending regulatory approvals. Trident will run 216 miles northeast from the Katy hub to Port Arthur near the Louisiana border.
East Daley Analytics tracks the KMI project in the Houston Ship Channel Supply & Demand Report, where we have flagged an oversupply concern in the South Texas market. The Matterhorn pipeline began flowing to Katy in Oct ’24, and the Gulf Coast Express (GCX) expansion and Blackcomb Pipeline will bring in up to 3.0 Bcf/d of incremental Permian supply by 2027. Trident will help solve for this regional buildup.
In the initial open season, KMI said that Trident could deliver up to 2.8 Bcf/d, so future expansions are possible.
The Port Arthur/Gillis area currently hosts ~7.8 Bcf/d of average feedgas pipe capacity and can pull in as much as 8.8 Bcf/d during the winter months, when LNG production peaks. In the Southeast Gulf Supply & Demand Report, EDA forecasts up to 4.7 Bcf/d of incremental LNG demand through YE27 from the Golden Pass LNG and Port Arthur LNG projects (see figure).
On October 15, Golden Pass LNG (2.7 Bcf/d) announced it had signed up for capacity on Trident. Golden Pass previously made commitments for 1.1 Bcf/d of firm transport out of the Haynesville on Energy Transfer’s (ET) Gulf Run Transmission. The joint Exxon (XOM) and QatarEnergy project also has a 340 MMcf/d commitment on KMI’s Natural Gas Pipeline (NGPL) system. East Daley estimates that Golden Pass needs ~1.16 Bcf/d of firm transport to fully supply the expanded facility, an unknown share of which will go to Trident.
Golden Pass has significant optionality in the Port Arthur area, with interconnects on the Golden Pass Pipeline to several major interstate and intrastate lines. Assuming that Trident doesn’t fully supply the remaining 1.16 Bcf/d, Golden Pass could underwrite an expansion on Gulf Run or pull in gas from Carthage on several intrastate systems (KMI Tejas, Texas, and HPL).
Previously, EDA had called for new capacity between the Houston Ship Channel and Louisiana on Blackfin Pipeline, for eventual delivery to CP Express and CP2 LNG. However, KMI has beaten Whitewater Midstream to the punch, particularly since CP2 was delayed by the Department of Energy’s export licensing pause. See our regional Houston Ship Channel and SE Gulf forecasts to learn more. - Oren Pilant Tickers: ET, KMI, XOM.
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