Chord Energy (CHRD) and Enerplus (ERF) plan to merge in an $11B transaction, creating an E&P focused on Bakken oil development. Several midstream operators could see rigs and volumes affected by the upstream deal.
At a combined count of 7 rigs and crude oil volumes of ~167 Mb/d, CHRD-ERF would be one of the top oil producers in the Williston Basin. The two companies currently operate 1 rig in McKenzie County, 2 rigs in Dunn County, and 4 in Montrail County, ND. They plan to close the merger in mid-2024.
The Williston Basin saw a significant uptick in crude oil production in 3Q23 to 1.3 MMb/d, a gain of 147 Mb/d (+12.7%). East Daley’s Crude Hub Model forecasts Williston Basin effective egress pipe utilization at 83% in 2023.
EDA expects Bakken oil production to grow 65 Mb/d on average in 2024, increasing utilization to 88% on oil pipelines leaving the basin (see figure). At the close of 2024, the Crude Hub Model predicts flows on Enbridge’s (ENB) North Dakota Pipeline and the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) to run at 88% utilization.
On the natural gas side, East Daley clients can analyze impacts of the merger using the “Producer to System Analysis” dashboard in Energy Data Studio. ONEOK (OKE) is the largest gatherer and processor for Chord and Enerplus, processing over 50% of the producers’ gas volumes (see figure from EDS dashboard showing CHRD-ERF volumes by processor). Targa Resources (TRGP), Hess Midstream, and Crestwood (CEQP) also handle gas for the two companies.
Chord and Enerplus both have guided to hold oil production flat in 2024 at 91–101 Mb/d and 64 Mb/d, respectively. The two companies have 1.3 million net acres combined and foresee 10 years of development opportunities at their current pace. From September 2022 to September 2023, Chord’s volume grew by 26.4% or 18.8 Mb/d while Enerplus saw volumes decline 1.1%. – Kristine Oleszek Tickers: CEQP, CHRD, ENB, ERF, OKE, TRGP.
New Webinar: Big Picture and Bottom Line – Q1 Market Update
Join East Daley CCO Justin Carlson on Wednesday, March 10 for a new webinar reviewing market developments from 1Q24. In “Big Picture and Bottom Line – Q1 Market Update,” EDA will look at market trends in crude, gas and NGLs since our Dirty Little Secrets report. Topics include Permian growth or slowdown, the big picture on Louisiana and ripple effects on gas, the LNG pause, and midstream M&A. Join us March 10 for the 1Q23 Market Update.
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New EDA Product: Houston Ship Channel Supply & Demand
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Energy Data Studio
East Daley Analytics has launched Energy Data Studio, a platform for our industry-leading midstream data and commodity production forecasts. All clients have access to the new client portal. If you have not yet logged in, please fill out the form to request a registration email be resent.
Energy Data Studio leverages our G&P data set for insights into midstream assets across every major oil and gas basin in North America. Users can navigate detailed visual dashboards by region, pipeline, or individual asset to understand crude oil, natural gas and NGL supply at the most granular level.
Energy Data Studio is available through data downloads from the visual interface, in Excel files, or as a direct feed delivered into subscribers’ workflow via secure file transfer. To learn more about Energy Data Studio, please contact insight@eastdaley.com.
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