The Permian gas overbuild continues to grow. The WhiteWater-led JV behind Eiger Express Pipeline will expand the greenfield project to 3.7 Bcf/d after securing additional firm transportation agreements.
The announcement on Nov. 24 comes just months after the project was first unveiled in August at an initial capacity of 2.5 Bcf/d. The expansion will see the 42-inch mainline upped to 48 inches and add additional compression, bringing pipeline capacity to 3.7 Bcf/d.
The Eiger Express consortium includes WhiteWater (65%), ONEOK (OKE, 15%), MPLX (15%) and Enbridge (ENB; 10%), the same group behind Matterhorn Express Pipeline. The investors don’t expect the expansion to impact Eiger’s in-service date and are still targeting mid-2028 to begin flowing gas.
Eiger Express will open additional egress from the Permian Basin to the Katy hub near Houston once completed. The Permian has seen constrained egress capacity in recent years, which has kept Waha prices suppressed, but a slate of green- and brownfield projects entering service over the next few years is expected to produce an overbuild for the basin.
East Daley Analytics forecasts over 10 Bcf/d of new Permian gas takeaway through 2030 based on projects with an FID. Along with Eiger Express, WhiteWater’s Blackcomb Pipeline (+2.5 Bcf/d) and ET’s Hugh Brinson Pipeline (+2.2 Bcf/d) are scheduled to start through 2027. Eiger Express and ET’s Desert Southwest (+1.5 Bcf/d) will add more takeaway by the end of the decade. Our outlook does not include other potential expansions on Hugh Brinson, Desert Southwest, or Tallgrass Energy’s proposed Permian-to-Rockies Express connector.
In the Permian Basin Supply & Demand model, we forecast Permian dry gas production to average just below 20 Bcf/d for 2025, maxing out effective capacity out of the basin. We predict production rises to nearly 27 Bcf/d by 2030 as producers move to gassier plays in the basin, but with the additional 1.2 Bcf/d from the Eiger Express expansion, the Permian will have over 30 Bcf/d of effective egress capacity (see figure).
This overbuild will likely sustain higher Waha prices as growing demand increases competition for molecules. But while most of the Permian’s new pipe projects are backed by firm transportation agreements, production could fail to grow into the available egress if WTI prices remain low and depress drilling, which could lead to these new projects being underutilized. – Ian Heming Tickers: ENB, MPLX, OKE.
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