Executive Summary:
Infrastructure: There is materially more propane supply hitting the market than most participants are pricing in.
Exports: NGL exports declined 9.4% for the May 1 week, despite a sharp ramp in LPG volumes from Enterprise’s Neches River Phase 2 expansion.
Rigs: The total US rig count held flat for the week of April 25 at 537 rigs.
Calendar: Hub Model and Basin S&D Update
Infrastructure:
There is materially more propane supply hitting the market than most participants are pricing in. The latest monthly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows US propane production from gas plants rebounded 111 Mb/d in February after January freeze-offs temporarily curtailed output.
East Daley had anticipated this recovery in our April ’26 Purity Product forecast, based on the production rebound in prior storms and real-time gas pipeline flows we monitor. The realized February number trailed our forecast by 12 Mb/d but exceeded EIA’s forecast in the April ’26 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) by a sizable 123 Mb/d.
The recovery was overwhelmingly driven by the Permian Basin, where February data showed record propane production out of Texas Inland. That matters because the underlying drivers, associated gas growth and rising NGL yields (measured as gallons per Mcf), remain firmly intact. This is structural supply growth.
East Daley continues to see sustained propane production growth through 2027, led by expanding Permian gas production and the basin’s increasingly liquids-rich production profile. Our April forecast averages 66 Mb/d above EIA’s in 2026 and is 87 Mb/d higher in 2027, based on the agency’s April ’26 STEO (see figure).
The market implication is straightforward: The US propane market will need to clear significantly more barrels than consensus currently expects. That raises the stakes for export demand growth, dock utilization and export economics in global propane dehydration (PDH) units.
Market participants should prepare for a longer-duration supply push and continued pressure to expand exports, rather than expecting the domestic market alone to absorb incremental barrels.
Exports:
NGL exports declined 9.4% W-o-W for the week ending May 1.
LPG volumes ramped sharply at Enterprise’s Neches River following the completion of its Phase 2 expansion. The terminal exported 216 Mb/d of propane, up 64.5% W-o-W. Energy Transfer’s Nederland Terminal also posted a 25% W-o-W increase. Despite these gains, declines across other terminals more than offset the growth, driving a 5.7% W-o-W decrease in total LPG exports.
On the ethane side, EPD’s Neches River reported zero volumes following Phase 2 completion, indicating a shift in focus toward LPGs. Modest gains at EPD Morgan’s Point (+21.1%) and ET Marcus Hook (+199.8%) were outweighed by significant losses at ET Nederland and Orbit (-249 Mb/d), resulting in a 27.8% W-o-W decline in ethane exports.
Rigs:
The total US rig count held flat for the week of April 25 at 537 rigs. Liquids-driven basins increased W-o-W from 409 to 411.
- Anadarko (+4):
- Mewbourne Oil (+2)
- Reign Operating (+1)
- Patterson Energy (+1)
- Bakken (+1): TXO Partners
- Eagle Ford (-1): Magnolia Oil & Gas
- Powder River (-1): Ballard Petroleum
- Uinta (-1): Koda Resources
Calendar:
