Executive Summary:
Infrastructure:
Exports: NGL exports dropped 13.8% W-o-W for the week ending April 17.
Rigs: The total US rig count remained constant during the week of April 12, holding at 521 rigs. Liquids-driven basins increased W-o-W from 396 to 398.
Calendar: Macro S&D Update
Infrastructure:
Enterprise Products’ (EPD) Neches River Terminal Phase 2 expansion is emerging as a key swing factor for the 2026 propane balance. East Daley Analytics expects propane service to begin in May and have modeled three ramp scenarios to test how startup timing could shape inventories heading into winter.
Our base case assumes a ramp trajectory similar to Phase 1, with exports reaching 40 Mb/d in May, 70 Mb/d in June and 120 Mb/d in July. In that scenario, US propane storage climbs to 107 MMbbl in November. A faster ramp, where exports run 20 Mb/d above the Phase 1 pace, brings inventories down modestly but still leaves propane storage at a record 104 MMbbl. A slower ramp, 20 Mb/d below the base case, pushes inventories even higher to 110 MMbbl.
The takeaway is straightforward: Even under an aggressive startup, the propane market remains oversupplied. A delayed or slower-than-expected ramp would only add to the overhang, reinforcing a bearish setup for propane prices as the market moves into the 2026 heating season.
Beyond timing, Neches River also faces a commercial challenge. As global LPG trade continues to diversify away from China, buyers increasingly favor mixed cargoes with a higher butane component. That dynamic could make it harder for a pure propane terminal to fully optimize utilization. Even so, Enterprise has flexibility across its export assets. The company may be able to maximize propane loadings at Neches River while freeing capacity at Enterprise Hydrocarbons Terminal for more blended cargo optimization.
In that sense, the startup of Phase 2 matters not just for outright export volumes, but for how effectively Enterprise can position its broader dock system against changing global LPG demand patterns.
Exports:
NGL exports dropped 13.8% W-o-W for the week ending April 17.
EPD EHT (+25.4%) and ET Nederland (+17.4%) showed higher exports, while volumes declined across all other terminals, resulting in a 6.1% decrease in LPG exports W-o-W.
EPD Neches River and ET Nederland and Orbit both reported zero volumes, largely offsetting slight gains at EPD Morgan’s Point (+13.2%) and ET Marcus Hook (+48.9%), driving a 42.9% W-o-W decline in ethane exports.
Rigs:
The total US rig count remained constant during the week of April 12, holding at 521 rigs. Liquids-driven basins increased W-o-W from 396 to 398.
- Anadarko (+1): Aztec Oil Operating
- Bakken (+1): TXO Partners
- Eagle Ford (-2): Remora Petroleum
- Permian
- Delaware (-1): Matador Resources
- Midland (+3): Diamondback Energy
Calendar:
