Executive Summary:
Infrastructure:
East Daley expects US NGL production to grow ~2.2 MMb/d over the next five years, driven by a stronger oil macro outlook.
Exports: NGL exports decreased 3.6% W-o-W for the week ending April 10.
Rigs: The total US rig count decreased during the week of April 5 from 519 to 518. Liquids-driven basins decreased W-o-W from 396 to 395.
Calendar: Macro S&D Update
Infrastructure:
US NGL production is set to expand by ~2.2 MMb/d over the next five years, with a stronger macro oil environment driving the upside. A sustained lift in the WTI forward curve, up roughly $10/bbl on average in 2027 following disruptions tied to Operation Epic Fury, has materially raised East Daley’s NGL production outlook.
Near-term growth is heavily concentrated in the Permian Basin, where we forecast NGL output to increase by 408 Mb/d in 2026 and 270 Mb/d in 2027. This acceleration is partly a result of higher gas-to-oil ratios (GORs) in new wells, plus incremental demand for low-cost Permian ethane, particularly from new Gulf Coast capacity at Neches River and the Golden Triangle ethane cracker.
East Daley’s forecast is broken out by purity product in the “NGL Purity Product” dashboard in Energy Data Studio. Ethane remains the core growth engine. We expect ethane recovery rates will stay elevated as weak Waha prices incentivize maximum extraction. That dynamic begins to shift in 3Q and 4Q26, when new gas takeaway capacity from Blackcomb Pipeline and the Gulf Coast Express (GCX) expansion comes online, creating downside risk to recovery as gas pricing improves in the basin.
Propane is the second-largest contributor to growth, with volumes expected to increase by ~300 Mb/d over the next two years, reinforcing the scale of incremental supply entering global markets.
Exports:
NGL exports decreased 3.6% W-o-W for the week ending April 10.
LPG exports increased 5.9% W-o-W, driven by gains at Targa’s Galena Park (+41.8%) and PSX’s Freeport (+30%), which more than offset declines at other terminals.
Ethane exports fell 31.6% W-o-W, as only modest gains were outweighed by sharp declines at Enterprise’s Morgan’s Point (-62.5%) and ET Marcus Hook (-52.9%).
Rigs:
The total US rig count decreased during the week of April 5 from 519 to 518. Liquids-driven basins decreased W-o-W from 396 to 395.
- Permian
- Delaware (-3): EOG Resources
- Midland (+3): Permian Resources
- Uinta (-1): FourPoint Energy
Calendar:
