Executive Summary:
Infrastructure: ONEOK is set to lose ~18 Mb/d of Bakken NGL volumes to Kinder Morgan, likely flowing on the converted Double H pipeline.
Exports: : NGL exports were broadly stable for the week ending March 27, rising 1.7% W-o-W.
Rigs: The total US rig count decreased during the week of March 22 from 522 to 513. Liquids-driven basins decreased W-o-W from 398 to 393.
Flows: US natural gas volumes in pipeline samples increased 0.3% W-o-W, averaging 80.1 Bcf/d for the week ending March 29.
Infrastructure:
ONEOK (OKE) will lose ~18 Mb/d of NGLs in the Bakken to Kinder Morgan (KMI) when a contract rolls off later this year, executives disclosed on OKE’s 4Q25 earnings call. We expect KMI to move those barrels on Double H Pipeline, which the company is converting from crude oil to NGL service.
ONEOK’s Bakken system consists of the Bakken and Elk Creek pipelines. We expect OKE will prioritize volumes on Elk Creek given its higher profitability, and therefore will see reduced throughput on the Bakken line. Executives did not reveal if KMI or a third party is the counterparty behind the lost contract.
The disclosure confirms risk to OKE highlighted by East Daley when Kinder Morgan announced the Double H conversion in 2024.
Double H runs from Dore, ND to the Guernsey market in Wyoming. KMI stopped flowing crude oil on Double H in October ‘25, according to East Daley Analytics’ Bakken–Guernsey–DJ Crude Oil report. The company expects to start NGL service in late 1Q or early 2Q26, executives said on KMI’s 4Q26 earnings call. We expect KMI to ramp the 18 Mb/d onto Double H shortly after startup.
Despite the lost barrels, OKE still expects NGL volumes to grow on its pipelines from the Bakken, where rising oil-to-gas ratios are supporting natural gas and NGL production. ONEOK expanded the Elk Creek line at the start of 2025 and has ramped throughput from a combination of pipeline diversions and increased output from its Bakken processing plants.
Exports:
NGL exports were broadly stable for the week ending March 27, rising 1.7% W-o-W.
LPG exports were essentially flat, as declines at Enterprise’s EHT were offset by gains at Targa’s Galena Park, resulting in a slight 1.3% W-o-W decrease overall.
Ethane exports showed stronger momentum, increasing 11.8% W-o-W. Despite a 72.2% drop at EPD Neches River, gains across other terminals drove overall growth, led by an 86.9% increase at EPD Morgan’s Point (+174 Mb/d).
Rigs:
The total US rig count decreased during the week of March 22 from 522 to 513. Liquids-driven basins decreased W-o-W from 398 to 393.
- DJ (-1): Occidental Petroleum
- Eagle Ford (-1): Home Petroleum
- Permian
- Delaware (-3): BP
- Midland (-2): Diamondback Energy
- Powder River (+2): 1876 Resources LLC
- Uinta (+1): Finley Resources
Flows:
US natural gas volumes in pipeline samples increased 0.3% W-o-W, averaging 80.1 Bcf/d for the week ending March 29.
Flows in gas basins increased 0.6% to 50.6 Bcf/d. The ArkLaTex (Haynesville) sample increased 1.9% to 11.4 Bcf/d, and the Marcellus+Utica slid 0.3% W-o-W to 38.5 Bcf/d.
Samples in liquids basins declined 0.2% to 22.0 Bcf/d. The Permian sample decreased 0.3%, while the Eagle Ford sample gained 3.9%.
Calendar:
