Executive Summary:
Infrastructure: The Golden Triangle Polymers project has been delayed until 2027, pushing back a key source of new US ethane demand.
Exports: NGL exports declined 6.5% W-o-W for the week ending April 24.
Rigs: The total US rig count increased to 532 for the week of April 12.
Calendar: Macro S&D Update
Infrastructure:
Golden Triangle Polymers, a world-scale ethane cracker under construction in Orange, TX, has been delayed, pushing back a key source of new US ethane demand.
The project, a joint venture between Chevron Phillips Chemical (CPChem; 51%) and QatarEnergy (49%), is now expected to start up in 2027 vs a previous target of 2026.
Golden Triangle Polymers will include a 2 Mtpa ethane cracker and two 1 Mtpa high-density polyethylene units. Once fully operational, the project will consume roughly 110 Mb/d of ethane.
The delay shifts the trajectory of domestic ethane consumption, pushing back what would have been a step-change in Gulf Coast demand. The chart shows the revised forecast in East Daley Analytics’ Ethane Supply & Demand report. The postponement results in a flatter near-term demand profile through 2026, with consumption ultimately catching up once the project comes online in 2027.
Located in the Golden Triangle petrochemical corridor northeast of Mont Belvieu, the facility is expected to draw heavily on Mont Belvieu-linked supply, making its startup timing relevant to the broader US ethane balance.
The delay will extend the period when domestic ethane consumption is insufficient to fully absorb available supply. This results in more ethane in the system in 2H26, likely softening Mont Belvieu prices relative to prior expectations and delaying price support into 2027.
In the near term, export markets should be able to absorb a portion of the incremental supply, particularly as Phase 2 of Enterprise’s (EPD) Neches River terminal is expected to come online soon.
Exports:
NGL exports declined 6.5% W-o-W for the week ending April 24.
PSX Freeport volumes increased 40.8%, with a modest 4.4% gain at Targa Resources’ Galena Park. However, declines across other terminals more than offset these gains, driving an overall 11.1% W-o-W decrease in LPG exports.
Enterprise’s Morgan’s Point volumes fell 14%, while ET Nederland & Orbit volumes roughly doubled, resulting in a 20.5% W-o-W increase in ethane exports.
Rigs:
The total US rig count increased the week of April 18 to 532 rigs, up 3 from the prior week. Liquids-driven basins increased W-o-W to 408 from 406.
- Anadarko (+3): Mewbourne Oil
- Bakken (-1): Kraken Resources
- Eagle Ford (+1): Espada Energy
- Permian
- Delaware (+2): ConocoPhillips
- Midland (-2): Vital Energy
- Uinta (-1): SM Energy
Calendar:
