Executive Summary:
Infrastructure: Ethane has become a geopolitically critical commodity as the US dominates global exports while China drives most incremental demand.
Exports: NGL exports rose 13.7% W-o-W for the week ending May 15, driven by a sharp increase in ethane exports and a rebound at Marcus Hook following last week’s slowdown.
Rigs: The total US rig count held flat the week of May 9 at 540 rigs. Liquids-driven basins decreased W-o-W from 414 to 413.
Infrastructure:
Ethane has become one of the most geopolitically important commodities in the global energy trade. The United States is effectively the world’s only major ethane exporter, while China remains the largest source of incremental demand. That dynamic has pushed ethane into the center of geopolitical and energy-security discussions as global petrochemical supply chains increasingly depend on US NGL infrastructure.
The strategic importance of the trade has only grown following disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz closure. US ethane exports reached record highs in February in Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, and East Daley Analytics expects another record month in March, with exports to average nearly 776 Mb/d. We expect exports to normalize modestly in April and May, primarily due to vessel availability constraints and Panama Canal delays rather than weakening demand fundamentals.
Midstream operators are signaling growing confidence in the long-term outlook. Enterprise Products (EPD) and Energy Transfer (ET) both highlighted strong demand trends during 1Q earnings discussions. ET also hinted at potential future expansion opportunities within its ethane export business. East Daley believes the Lake Charles LNG footprint remains a logical long-term expansion target given its strategic Gulf Coast positioning and existing infrastructure connectivity. Meanwhile, EPD CEO Jim Teague noted he was surprised by the global “appetite” for ethane demand.
The next phase of export growth could come down to shipping capacity.
According to East Daley research, 43 ethane-capable vessels — including very large ethane carriers (VLECs), ultra-large ethane carriers (ULECs) and liquefied ethylene gas carriers (LEGs) — are scheduled for delivery between 2026 and 2027, with the majority arriving in 2027. That delivery schedule is a critical signal for future export growth. Infrastructure on the US Gulf Coast is already being positioned for higher volumes, with EPD stating that the combined 300 Mb/d capacity at Neches River Phases 1 and 2 is fully contracted under long-term agreements.
The implication is clear: Vessel deliveries are becoming the gating factor for global ethane trade growth. East Daley expects the pace of ethane export expansion to accelerate materially in 2027 as new shipping capacity enters service and global petrochemical consumers continue diversifying feedstock supply chains around advantaged US ethane.
Exports:
NGL exports rose 13.7% W-o-W for the week ending May 15, driven by a sharp increase in ethane exports and a rebound at Marcus Hook following last week’s slowdown.
LPG exports declined 3.6% W-o-W as weaker volumes from TRGP Galena Park (-31.9%) and ET Marcus Hook (-57.4%) more than offset gains across other terminals.
Ethane exports surged 119.9% W-o-W, with all terminals posting stronger volumes and most ports more than doubling exports from the prior week. Marcus Hook also rebounded after reporting zero exports last week, highlighting continued strong global demand for US ethane.
Rigs:
The total US rig count held flat the week of May 9 at 540 rigs. Liquids-driven basins decreased W-o-W from 414 to 413.
- Bakken (-1): Kraken Resources
- Permian
- Delaware (+1): VTX Energy Operating
- Midland (-1): ExxonMobil
- Powder River (-1): Ballard Petroleum
- Uinta (+1): Scout Energy Partners
