East Daley Analytics – Dissecting the Energy Value Chain
Energy Insights and News

Storage Dynamic Changes Winter Flows to West Coast

Comments: 0

Storage has been the story of the West Coast natural gas market this winter. The Pacific region (Washington, Oregon and California) ended November ’24 with 310 Bcf in storage, the highest inventory entering a winter since 2020, according to Energy Information Administration data. As a result, flows in the West are taking on new dynamics this season.

East Daley Analytics tracks the regional market in the West Coast Supply & Demand Report. In recent winters, Rockies Express Pipeline (REX) has been the key route to supply additional gas to the West.

REX played a pivotal market role following an explosion on Line 2000 of the El Paso Natural Gas system in August 2021. The incident took ~600 MMcf/d of capacity offline for nearly 18 months, leaving the West Coast market exposed during a cold 2022-23 heating season. Spot prices in California topped $50/MMBtu that winter as regional storage rapidly depleted, but the massive price spreads also drew gas westward on REX across the Rocky Mountains. The region has continued to rely on REX to meet peak winter demand, even after Line 2000 returned to service in 2023.

tdn 3.13 new

But this season, REX has been de-prioritized. After last year’s warmer-than-average winter and a push to restock inventory over the summer, Pacific region storage has been ample enough to meet demand without pushing prices to extremes.

Not surprisingly, the lower West Coast prices have failed to incentivize westward flows on REX this winter. The pipeline in January and February ’25 flowed nearly 350 MMcf/d eastward from Colorado into Wyoming, after flowing more than 600 MMcf/d westward over the same period last year (see the figure).

Entering March, the Pacific region still has about 60% of the working gas volumes from November in storage, which should be sufficient to get through the season without westward flows from REX. Basis prices, therefore, are likely to remain low to negative into the shoulder season.

The priority on storage gas has been in the works for several years. The West Coast has developed a pronounced summer bump in volumes as utilities work to refill storage. Rather than just using REX to move additional gas west during the winter peak, shippers also have leaned on the pipeline the last two years to refill storage in the summer, when prices and demand are lower.

See our West Coast Supply & Demand Report for more details. If the recent trend continues, REX will likely not flow westward in 2025 until the summer, when warmer weather should decrease demand and prices and encourage storage restocking. – Ian Heming.

 

Data Center Demand Monitor - Available Now!

Introducing Data Center Demand Monitor by East Daley Analytics. This is your go-to source for tracking data center projects and demand. We monitor and visualize nearly 300 US data center projects. Use Data Center Demand Monitor to forecast demand, identify pipeline corridors and track data center projects. — Request your demo now of the Data Center Demand Monitor!

Energy Path - Powered by Energy Data Studio

Introducing Energy Path by East Daley Analytics — a revolutionary tool designed to transform how you view the energy market. With Energy Path, you can seamlessly track the molecule from wellhead to demand, gaining a complete view of the entire oil and gas value chain. From upstream to midstream to downstream, this multi-commodity product offers unparalleled insights across natural gas, NGLs and crude oil. Monitor volumes and fees at every stage, empowering your decision-making with a holistic market perspective.

See energy differently — Request your Energy Path demo now!

The Dirty Little Secrets 2025 Report is Live! 

The 2025 Dirty Little Secrets written report is available now. This report goes beyond the webinar discussions to provide a deeper analysis of the topics covered. Learn how commodities are intertwined and identify opportunities for profit from market dislocations.  Request a copy of the Dirty Little Secrets report. 

The Daley Note

Subscribe to The Daley Note (TDN) for midstream insights delivered daily to your inbox. The Daley Note covers news, commodity prices, security prices and EDA research likely to affect markets in the short term.

About the AuthorIan Heming

prev

Subscribe to
the Daley Note

SUBSCRIBE

Upcoming Events

LDC Mid Continent

September 08, 2025

Register Here

LDC Southeast

April 15, 2025

Register Here

LDC Gulf Coast

October 13, 2025

Register Here

LDC Northeast

June 09, 2025

Register Here

North American Crude Production: WCSB, Rockies & Permian Growth Impact on US Crude Market Hubs and Export Docks

March 12, 2025

Register Here

The Natural Gas Demand Rocket Preps for Launch

March 13, 2025

Register Here

EIC Investor Conference

May 20, 2025

Register Here