NGL Monthly Roundup: June 7, 2023
NGL pipeline owners are riding a wave of positive market trends in the Permian Basin: Y-grade volumes are growing along with investments in natural gas, while new midstream competition is several years away.
East Daley Analytics’ NGL Network Model predicts a big jump in Permian Y-grade volumes in the back half of the year, up 8% (223 Mb/d) Y-o-Y in 4Q23. We use integrated commodity models, and in this case anticipate investments in natural gas to drive spillover growth in NGLs.
The Permian Highway and Whistler gas pipelines are building new compression, adding 1 Bcf/d of residue gas takeaway out of the Permian later in 2023. We expect these pipeline expansions to quickly fill, meaning more wellhead gas processing and more extraction of NGLs. The Matterhorn Express Pipeline, scheduled to start in mid-2024, will enable further market expansion from the Permian.
While NGL supply is set to grow, pipeline operators in the Permian won’t face any new competition until 2025, when Targa Resources (TRGP) plans to start its Daytona NGL Pipeline. Enterprise Products (EPD) is also expanding the Shin Oak pipeline by 275 Mb/d while converting its Chaparral Pipeline to move refined products.
Until these projects start service, Permian NGL pipelines should continue to fill. Based on our NGL Network Model, increased NGL flows will raise average utilization on egress pipelines to 86% in 4Q23 vs 81% in 4Q22. Pipe utilization continues to grow through 2024, peaking at 88% (see chart).
We anticipate supply gains for multiple systems including Shin Oak, Lone Star, West TX LPG, and EPIC. Pipeline operators should see growing demand for transit services over this period and benefit from increased throughput and higher prices for walk-up services. – Ajay Bakshani and Christina Adjiman Tickers: EPD, TRGP.
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East Daley Analytics’ The NGL Roundup is a FREE review of monthly NGL data from EIA and East Daley’s own basin-level supply forecasts of Y-grade and NGL purity products. The NGL Roundup gives a snapshot of data from our larger NGL Network Model. Follow key NGL data trends:
- NGL production by basin
- NGL purity product supply forecasts
- Ethane recovery by basin
- Historical and future NGL prices
- Conway and Mont Belvieu frac spreads
- NGL storage trends
- Regional NGL exports
East Daley uses a bottoms-up approach to supply to go deeper than the PADD or sub-PADD level to truly understand what is happening in NGL markets. Learn more and request access to our NGL data here.
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