East Daley Analytics – Dissecting the Energy Value Chain
Energy Insights and News

Beryl Barrels Through Texas, Leaves Lost Demand in Wake

Comments: 0

Hurricane Beryl barreled ashore early Monday morning (July 8) south of Houston, causing widespread power outages and moderate flooding in southeastern Texas. The storm has wiped out a large amount of gas demand for LNG and power generation and disrupted operations at ship channels supporting LPG exports.

Beryl made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 80 miles per hour, toppling trees and power lines and leaving 2.7 million people without power on Monday in the greater Houston area. Centerpoint Energy and Texas officials said Beryl knocked down 10 transmission lines and many more local power lines across the region.

demand ngw 7.10

Beryl also has dented the bustling LPG export trade based in southeastern Texas. The Houston Port Bureau reported the Houston Ship Channel closed as vessel transit services suffered significant damage, limiting their ability to monitor ship transits. Activity at the Freeport, Galveston and Texas City ports have also been disrupted, leading to significantly lower tanker traffic.

East Daley Analytics estimates Beryl has cut natural gas demand by a total of ~12.4 Bcf (2.5 Bcf/d) for five days through Thursday (see figure). Freeport LNG shut down on Sunday (July 7) ahead of the storm, and pipeline nominations to the facility have remained at zero since then. The Freeport facility normally receives about 1.9 Bcf/d of natural gas.

Lost gas-fired power burn also has been significant, with 1.2 million residents still without power on Thursday. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has reported between 16.5 GW and 19.5 GW of outages so far this week. System-wide electricity demand also has been well below day-ahead forecasts. About 50% of the generation fleet in Texas is fired by natural gas. Assuming the outages uniformly impaired power facilities, we see about 0.8 Bcf/d of lost gas demand for generation starting Monday.

On the supply side, we are monitoring ~0.3 Bcf/d of shut-in gas production, mainly in pipe samples covering the offshore Gulf of Mexico. But on net, Beryl has been bearish for the gas market. We also expect channel disruptions will lead to reduced LPG and ethane exports. – Jack Weixel and Christina Adjiman.

 

Available Now: Ethane Supply and Demand Report and Data Set 

This is a comprehensive data file and report that provides valuable insights into historical and forecasted supply and demand components for ethane. The report covers crucial metrics such as ethane supply from US gas processing plants, and demand from domestic ethylene steam crackers and ethane exports. Learn more about the Ethane Supply and Demand Report and Data Set. 

Is Crude Oil Heading into a Super Volatility Cycle? Join EDA’s Webinar July 18

East Daley will host our next Crude Oil webinar on July 18th. In ‘Crude Oil Heading into a Super-Volatility Cycle: We See it Coming Soon,’ EDA examines market factors likely to support price volatility ahead. We look at unexpected risks from commodity ties (Crude-NG-NGLs) and the facts about ’24 Crude Supply - will growth show up in 2H24? And is this bigger than a Permian story? Join the webinar on July 18th. 

Energy Data Studio

East Daley Analytics has launched Energy Data Studio, a platform for our industry-leading midstream data and commodity production forecasts. All clients have access to the new client portal. If you have not yet logged in, please fill out the form to request a registration email be resent.

Energy Data Studio leverages our G&P data set for insights into midstream assets across every major oil and gas basin in North America. Users can navigate detailed visual dashboards by region, pipeline, or individual asset to understand crude oil, natural gas and NGL supply at the most granular level.

Energy Data Studio is available through data downloads from the visual interface, in Excel files, or as a direct feed delivered into subscribers’ workflow via secure file transfer. To learn more about Energy Data Studio, please contact insight@eastdaley.com.

The Daley Note

Subscribe to The Daley Note (TDN) for midstream insights delivered daily to your inbox. The Daley Note covers news, commodity prices, security prices and EDA research likely to affect markets in the short term.

About the AuthorJack Weixel

prev
Next