Market Movers: East Daley believes we have a good bead on Matador Resources’ results ahead of its 4Q25 earnings reveal.
Estimated Quarterly Volumes:
3Q25 to 4Q25: The Bakken (-3.6%), Haynesville (-2.6%) and Delaware (-0.7%) are trending down while the Northeast (1.1%) and Rockies (1.1%) are trending up Q-o-Q.
4Q25 to 1Q26: The Haynesville (-6.4%), Bakken (-5.4%), Northeast (-2.9%) and Rockies (-0.3%) are all trending down Q-o-Q.
Calendar: EDA will be in Houston Feb. 25-27 and Los Angeles Mar. 17-19. Earnings reviews for ET, WES and TRGP, along with an earnings preview for SOBO, will be released by Feb. 20. The next financial model update will occur on Mar. 13.
Market Movers:
Ignore the red cape – we know Matador’s real volumes.
East Daley Analytics’ Energy Data Studio indicates Matador Resources (MTDR) is tracking 4Q25 oil production of ~117 Mb/d and natural gas volumes of ~516 MMcf/d, down ~2.3% and ~4% Q-o-Q respectively. Energy Data Studio captures 4Q25 plant inlet and residue samples roughly a month ahead of MTDR’s earnings report, giving investors an early read on the likely print.
Our estimates broadly line up with MTDR’s guidance from its 3Q25 earnings. Management estimated 4Q25 oil production of 119–121 Mb/d and gas production of 516–522 MMcf/d (total 205–208 Mboe/d). If MTDR lands near those targets, the stock is less likely to move on the quarter’s results, and more likely to trade on 2026 guidance and the capital spending plan.
Why the market cares: The investor debate in the Permian has shifted from “How fast can you grow?” to “How durable is your free cash flow?” In a $55–60/bbl oil price environment, many investors interpret growth as value-destructive, unless it is clearly paired with a returns discipline and progress toward strengthening balance sheets.
In the 2026 Dirty Little Secrets, East Daley highlights the new macro reality: The US barrel is increasingly export-linked, the connection between shale supply growth and global liquids demand is weakening, and Permian operators are broadly embracing minimal growth as the new baseline.
That reality is reflected in the Permian producer guidance figure below. Across the group, growth from 2025 to ’26 consolidates to roughly low single digits (~1–1.5%), reinforcing that discipline is now the consensus posture.
Interpreting the signal: Gas softness is likely an economics story. MTDR’s gas can be exposed to Permian basis and Waha volatility; curtailments in poor pricing windows can make Q-o-Q gas production look weaker even when underlying well performance is stable. Investors typically view that as discipline, if oil holds and the company explains the trade-offs clearly.
Oil is the “quality check.” Oil is the cleaner signal for execution and intent. A print in-line with the company’s estimated range supports the view that 4Q is stable; a miss would raise harder questions about cadence, downtime, and the reliability of the 2026 setup.
Matador is scheduled to report 4Q25 results after the market close on Feb. 24. We expect investors will interpret the results through one lens: Does MTDR prioritize value and balance sheet durability, or will it still chase growth into a weaker tape?
Estimated Quarterly Volumes:
The Total Sample represents the flow sample and plant data accessible to EDA. The latest Q-o-Q percentage change is estimated by comparing either flow sample data Q-o-Q or plants within a basin that have continuously reported inlet volumes from the prior quarter to the current quarter. 4Q25 is expressed as Q-o-Q growth from 3Q25 and 1Q26 is expressed as Q-o-Q growth from 4Q25.
Rockies represents the aggregate of Big Horn, DJ, Green River, Piceance, Powder River, San Juan, Uinta and Wind River basins.
Bakken: Bakken plant inlet data is down 3.6% 3Q25 to 4Q25. Targa’s Badlands system is down 12% and ONEOK’s Bakken system is down 4% Q-o-Q. Top producers on ONEOK’s Bakken system include Continental Resources (348 MMcf/d), ConocoPhillips (247 MMcf/d) and Chord Energy (230 MMcf/d).
Rockies: Rockies flow sample data is down 0.3% from 4Q25 to 1Q26. Phillip 66’s DCP DJ system is down 5% while Williams’ Cureton system is up 1% Q-o-Q. Top producers on Cureton include Civitas Resources (49 MMcf/d), Chevron (46 MMcf/d) and Verdad Resources (34 MMcf/d).
Calendar:
