Exec Summary
Market Movers: East Daley expects only modest volume gains for Kinetik in the 2Q25 Earnings Preview, and we struggle to reach the company’s ambitious full-year growth target.
Flows: The KMI flow sample is up from 2Q25 due to increased Haynesville volumes.
Calendar: EDA will update company models for ENB, PAA, PBA, TRP, SMC and WES on July 24.
Market Movers:
East Daley Analytics has published updated models and 2Q25 Earnings Previews for Energy Transfer (ET), Genesis Energy (GEL) and MPLX, with several others out for delivery. Here are a few data points we’re seeing so far:
KNTK – Ambitious Guidance, Model Realities
Processing volumes declined 3.2% Y-o-Y in 1Q25 and slipped a further 3.0% Q-o-Q in our 2Q25 forecast. We expect only modest 2Q25 volume gains through assets like:
- Kings Landing Phase I expansion (modeled for a late-June startup)
- Permian Resources bolt-on in Reeves Country (partial 2025 contribution)
Management’s “high-teens” 2025 growth guidance (13% Y-o-Y) diverges from both the 1Q actuals (–3.2% Y-o-Y) and our full-year model (~9% Y-o-Y). Whether KNTK can reconcile this gap — via a faster Kings Landing ramp or earlier bolt-on synergies — will determine whether KNTK can truly deliver the upside it’s forecasting.
Williams (WMB) – Perdido Norte Ramp Still Pending
Perdido Norte flow sample volumes have not shown meaningful increases through EDA’s latest data in June, suggesting the deepwater system has yet to deliver material volumes into the Perdido hub. Williams has indicated that the projects will be completed on the following delayed timelines:
- Whale: Shell (SEL) achieved first oil Jan. 9, 2025 at the Whale floating production facility. Despite first oil, monthly flow sample data has not shown a step increase toward the ~100 Mboe/d design capacity.
- Great White: Three wells were originally slated for startup in April 2025. One well began production in March, but the two remaining wells have been pushed out to YE25. Absent the full three-well ramp, gas and oil flow samples remain near zero against the 265 MMcf/d gas and 100 Mb/d oil‐equivalent processing capacities.
With Whale and Great White still offline, deepwater volumes won’t bolster Williams’ 2Q25 results. A true flow-sample ramp remains the key catalyst for restoring earnings visibility into late 2025 and beyond.
MPLX – Utica JV Sample Spikes in Response to Gas Prices
Processing samples for the MPLX – Utica JV system have jumped 33% from 1Q25 into 2Q25 (see asset chart from Energy Data Studio), suggesting an earlier reaction to higher Northeast gas prices than we’d previously modeled. That uptick should provide a modest tailwind for MPLX’s 2Q25 earnings, even as our overall outlook remains flat given a mix of offsetting puts and takes:
- Gulfport Resources (GPOR): GPOR is one of the largest producers on the Utica JV system. Our data shows solid Q-o-Q growth in 2Q25 production.
- Ascent Resources: Another core Utica operator is likewise poised for meaningful volume gains this quarter.
The robust Northeast gas volumes underpin a positive bias for MPLX’s fee-based cash flows in 2Q25, but broader commodity and maintenance dynamics leave our 2025 outlook unchanged. Watch out for East Daley’s updated Financial Blueprints and 2Q25 Earnings Previews to learn more.
Flows:
- The KMI flow sample is up from 2Q25 due to increased Haynesville volumes. KMI – KinderHawk shows a 115 MMcf/d increase from 2Q25.
- The DTM flow sample is down from 2Q25 as a result of Northeast production declines, coupled with some flows being redirected to intrastate pipelines.
Calendar:
