Fallout from the Iran conflict has pushed crude prices higher and renewed focus on oil-weighted basins like the Bakken. East Daley Analytics recently revised our Bakken outlook higher in anticipation of a recovery in drilling activity. While producers have been cautious in recent months, improved price signals should prompt a measured return to growth.
East Daley’s outlook is available in the ‘Bakken Energy Path’ dashboard in Energy Data Studio. We forecast Bakken crude production will increase 4.1% in 2026 (exit to exit), adding roughly 51 Mb/d over the year. We expect growth will continue to push oil output higher, reaching a peak of about 1.4 MMb/d in October 2029 and then gradually decline (see figure below from Energy Data Studio). We model Bakken rig activity tops out at 37 rigs in February 2027 and then gradually tapers off through 2030.
With the Enbridge’s (ENB) North Dakota line running effectively full and Bridger Pipeline operating well above nameplate capacity, we anticipate incremental barrels will move onto Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL). We project DAPL throughput will increase ~20% by December 2027, or ~97 Mb/d. Some additional volumes could move north on ENB’s Bakken system, though utilization has remained low, averaging only about 21% over the past year.
Bakken gas production also grows as operators lift drilling. Residue gas volumes increase up to 95 MMcf/d more in our revised April outlook.
Additional Bakken gas takeaway capacity is set to come online soon from the Bison Pipeline reversal project, which will add ~300 MMcf/d of egress capacity into the Powder River Basin. The expansion will likely be filled in part by currently flared gas. We estimate average utilization around 250 MMcf/d annually, though weaker downstream demand could temper throughput. At the same time, flaring is expected to decline further as in-basin demand grows, supported by new gas-fired power generation serving North Dakota.
Producers were initially hesitant to drill into the higher WTI price curve, but that concern may be starting to ease. Continental Resources, a leading Bakken operator, announced plans in April to increase its capital budget. Chord Energy (CHRD) and Chevron (CVX) also have recently returned rigs to the North Dakota play.
Bottom Line: The Bakken is positioned for a modest rebound as stronger crude oil prices begin to pull producers back into the basin. Infrastructure capacity appears sufficient to handle incremental volumes, and while activity is picking up, long-term expansion will likely be limited by disciplined capital spending. – Keland Rumsey Tickers: CHRD, CVX, ENB.
Join East Daley’s May Production Stream Webinar
East Daley Analytics will host our monthly Production Stream webinar on Wednesday, May 27. Midstream infrastructure is becoming the defining bottleneck in North American energy markets — and the value of infrastructure is poised to rise significantly in the years ahead:
- US natural gas pipelines are operating at high utilization rates, making firm transportation increasingly strategic and valuable.
- Emerging demand like data centers and LNG export facilities require reliable baseload supply.
- Combined, we expect these sectors to drive more than 20 Bcf/d of long-term natural gas demand by 2030.
- Crude pipeline systems are facing similar constraints as producers push utilization limits to move oil to the coast.
- Fractionation bottlenecks in the Permian continue to tighten NGL logistics, raising critical questions about how the industry will respond.
Our analysts will break down emerging infrastructure constraints, and their implications for the future of midstream energy and new investment opportunities. Join our Production Stream webinar on Wednesday, May 27.
Download Part II of East Daley’s Permian Basin White Paper Series
The Permian Basin’s next big buildout is already taking shape, but this time the driver isn’t crude oil. In The Permian Basin at a Crossroads: Why This Pipeline Boom is Different, East Daley Analytics’ latest white paper reveals how gas demand from AI data centers, utilities and LNG exports is rewriting the midstream playbook in the leading US basin. Over 10 Bcf/d of new capacity and $12 billion in investments are reshaping flows, turning the Permian into a gas powerhouse even as rigs decline. Read Part II: Why This Pipeline Boom is Different
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