Hedge structure, not just spot price, will determine which producers can capture upside from the surge in oil prices.
Crude has traded like a crisis market recently, but upstream earnings will not. A price spike does not flow straight into realized revenue, and it will not flow evenly across the sector. The winners will be the companies with the most open barrels, or with hedge books that preserve upside.
That matters because the effect for 1Q26 earnings will be real but smaller than the tape suggests. January and February oil prices were much lower, with most producers realizing oil prices in the high-$50s to low-$60s. The move up from the Iran war only affects the final third of the quarter.
Using public data, East Daley Analytics has created a quarterly oil revenue sensitivity for producers. The figure compares the share of 2026 barrels that are hedged, and the relative upside potential for each producer, based on their hedge book structure. We estimate a March producer realized price of $83.56/bbl, assuming a March WTI price of $85.56/bbl less a $2 basis and quality haircut.
The numbers visualize the gross oil revenue sensitivity on open barrels for producers. They are not fully realized earnings estimates, and are intentionally conservative for names with puts, collars or swaps, because those barrels can still participate up to a strike or ceiling.
EOG Resources (EOG) is the cleanest spot-capture name in the group. YE26 hedge disclosures showed gas and NGL positions, and none for crude oil. With 546.5 Mb/d of oil and a $24.02/bbl price delta vs its latest realized oil price, EOG in March generates roughly $407MM of oil revenue uplift, or $169MM per $10/bbl move. If the market wants the purest crude torque, EOG is the top name.
Diamondback Energy (FANG) is the best buy-side setup. It has a 2026 hedge coverage of about 44.8% of 2026 oil volumes, leaving ~279 Mb/d of open oil under the open-barrel framework. That would give FANG about $221MM of March uplift, or $86MM per $10/bbl move, on the conservative screen.
But the numbers understate the real upside for FANG because the hedge book is mostly puts, not collars. Diamondback hedges for downside protection without giving up the same upside a collar-heavy book would. That makes it the strongest combination of protection and participation in the group.
Permian Resources (PR) sits in the middle. Its 2026 oil hedge book includes about 20.8 MMbbl of fixed-price swaps, or roughly 30.1% of its 189 Mb/d oil midpoint. That leaves about 132 Mb/d of open oil, implying roughly $101MM of March uplift, or $41MM per $10/bbl move. PR still has meaningful exposure to higher oil, but it is not a pure spot-beta name because the fixed-price swap layer caps part of the book.
Coterra Energy (CTRA) ranks below PR on upside capture because the structure is more collar-heavy. On corrected math, current 2026 oil hedge coverage is about 35% of its 167Mb/d oil midpoint, leaving about 108.6 Mb/d of open oil. That implies about $85MM of March uplift, or $34MM per $10/bbl move, on the open-barrel framework. Coterra still has real exposure to stronger oil, but too much of the protected book rolls into capped barrels once prices break above collar ceilings.
Chord Energy (CHRD) is more open than many investors assume. Using corrected 2026 crude hedge coverage of about 17%, Chord has roughly 132 Mb/d of open oil, implying about $109MM of March uplift, or $41MM per $10/bbl move. That keeps CHRD ahead of Coterra on spot leverage and clearly more exposed than the market tends to credit, even though some covered barrels are still tied up in collar-heavy structures.
Matador Resources (MTDR) is the laggard on upside capture. With about 50% of projected 2026 oil production hedged through costless collars and a 123 Mb/d oil target, MTDR has only 61.5 Mb/d of open oil under this framework. That translates into about $47MM of March uplift, or $19MM per $10/bbl move. MTDR still benefits from higher oil, but less than peers because too much of the book is capped.
The calls are straightforward. EOG is the purest winner. FANG is the best risk-adjusted winner. CHRD is the underappreciated upside name. PR is middle of the pack. CTRA is more capped than it looks. MTDR is the clear laggard.
That is why hedge structure matters more than just the hedge percentage. A producer hedged with puts can still participate in a rally. A producer hedged with collars or swaps on the same barrels cannot.
The first phase of the move was about spot oil reacting to geopolitical shock. The second phase will be about which producers still have open barrels, and can actually convert a stronger strip into cash flow. – Jaxson Fryer Tickers: CHRD, CTRA, EOG, FANG, MTDR, PR.
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