Utilities and technology companies are proposing a wave of natural gas-fired generation to serve rising electricity demand, data center buildouts and industrial development. Yet the timing of new demand increasingly depends on more than power-market economics: Projects must also secure a gas turbine. That equipment is becoming a gating factor to growth.
GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Power dominate the market for large-frame turbines used in combined-cycle plants. Other turbine manufacturers compete in smaller capacity ranges but generally have narrower portfolios or less operating experience with advanced-class machines. That concentration matters because the three leading suppliers cannot be readily substituted once a project has selected its plant configuration.
The manufacturers’ global order books illustrate the constraint.
GE Vernova reported a gas turbine backlog of 116 GW in its 2Q26 earnings compared to planned annual manufacturing capacity of ~20 GW, and expects a total backlog of 125 GW by the end of the year. More than half of the backlog consists of slot reservations rather than firm orders, GE said, while about 20% is associated with data centers. GE is taking reservations now for deliveries in 2031, and is on track to be more than halfway contracted for 2031 by YE26, executives said.
In its 2Q26 update, Siemens reported a turbine backlog of ~60 GW and said it is booked through 2028, with 2029–30 slots filling rapidly. Mitsubishi reportedly plans to double its production capacity by the end of 2030.
These global figures do not represent capacity available exclusively to US buyers. However, they indicate that developers unable to secure equipment early may struggle to meet announced startup dates.
East Daley Analytics has identified at least 65 GW of additional gas-fired generation planned through 2031, according to a review of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Form 860M. The monthly EIA survey reports status updates to power plants with 1 MW or greater of generating capacity, including planned additions and retirements.
If every project in the EIA survey were built and operated at full utilization, the portfolio alone could consume ~6–7 Bcf/d through 2031. That is the full-build case, not a forecast. After adjusting for development status, capacity factors, heat rates and the probability of completion, we estimate about 1.9 Bcf/d of the project portfolio is at risk of not being constructed. That accounts for roughly 5% of a Lower 48 power market approaching 38 Bcf/d on average in 2027.
The EIA-860M survey does not capture the entire opportunity. East Daley separately tracks 58 data center projects representing ~71 GW of load that could rely on behind-the-meter generation (see figure above from the ‘Data Center’ dashboard in Energy Data Studio). If all that load were served using gas under EDA’s operating assumptions, it would represent ~8.5 Bcf/d of unrisked demand. After adjusting for project quality, timing and likelihood of completion, we estimate ~1.43 Bcf/d of risk-adjusted demand from behind-the-meter projects.
Consequences of the turbine constraint are already visible. Engie withdrew its proposed Texas Energy Fund project after delays in procuring turbines made the required completion schedule difficult to meet. Advanced Power Services’ proposed $2B, 1.3-GW Chestnut Run gas plant in Carrol County, OH encountered a similar problem after the developer was unable to obtain the equipment around which the facility had been designed. Substituting different turbines would have reduced output by ~55 MW and required changes to its PJM interconnection request. These cases demonstrate how turbine scarcity can cascade into redesigns or outright cancellations.
With the timeline for a gas turbine growing longer, these delays no longer look like a temporary market disruption, but a structural constraint on how quickly developers can respond to growing power demand.
The shortage should favor utilities and well-capitalized independent power producers that can reserve equipment early and support long-term service agreements. Smaller developers and speculative data center projects are more exposed.
For the gas market, the result will likely be a slower and less uniform demand ramp, with some projects slipping beyond 2030 and others turning to existing generation, renewables, storage, or alternative behind-the-meter technologies. – Emily Cecchini.
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