The Daley Note

US NGL exports diverged sharply in 2025, offering an early signal of how global trade fragmentation may shape flows in 2026. Ethane exports rose 12% Y-o-Y, while propane volumes finished the year flat.

Propane entered 2025 with momentum, posting Y-o-Y growth of 5% in 1Q and 3% in 2Q25, but volumes faded midyear as uncertainty surrounding US-China trade escalated. Exports declined 2% Y-o-Y in 3Q and 3% Y-o-Y in 4Q25, erasing early gains and leaving propane exposed heading into 2026.

Ethane faced a sharper midyear shock, including periods when all US ethane exports to China were effectively restricted, yet still closed 2025 up 12% Y-o-Y. The rebound highlights ethane’s position as the cheapest petrochemical feedstock, able to sustain demand even as trade routes shift. The start of Enterprise Products’ (EPD) Neches River Terminal also lifted ethane volumes in 3Q and 4Q25.

2026 will be a pivotal year as globalism gives way to regional economics. Trade friction, tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risk are forcing buyers to reassess long-haul feedstock exposure and prioritize security of supply over marginal price advantages. While the US has sufficient NGL supply, the question is whether those barrels can reliably find new end markets fast enough to keep pace with growth.

Ethane enters this environment structurally advantaged, supported by cost leadership and embedded petrochemical demand. Propane faces a more binary outcome. Without greater clarity on trade policy and PDH margins, feedstock uncertainty risks giving global investors cold feet, delaying contracting decisions and capping export upside even as US production expands.

See East Daley Analytics’ monthly Natural Gas Liquids Report for more details. The risk in 2026 is not supply, it is confidence. If volatility persists, uncertainty itself becomes the binding constraint, reshaping global NGL trade flows and defining which US export pathways attract capital in the next cycle. – Julian Renton. Tickers: EPD.