The Daley Note

True Companies’ Bridger Pipeline is developing a project to move Western Canadian crude into the Guernsey hub in Wyoming, potentially using some of the partially developed Keystone XL on Canada’s side of the border. The central issue for the project is whether Guernsey can handle the increased barrels.

Bridger filed with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality for a 550 Mb/d, 36-inch crude oil pipeline from Phillips County, MT to Guernsey, WY. Bridger is targeting a July 2027 construction start.

According to East Daley Analytics’ Crude Hub Model, the Guernsey hub cannot handle the additional barrels from a 550 Mb/d expansion without new downstream capacity. The Guernsey hub primarily pools and redistributes Bakken and Powder River production to regional refineries and pipelines. Just over 100 Mb/d of spare capacity is available currently (see figure). Shippers will need more downstream takeaway to transport the additional Bridger barrels to the Gulf Coast, where refineries are better equipped to process heavy Canadian crude.

While the project does not outline how volumes would move downstream of Guernsey, East Daley sees a likely path to address the constraint. The solution would be to twin Tallgrass Energy’s Pony Express Pipeline, currently the premier route for moving crude from Guernsey to the Gulf Coast. Pony is already operating above its nameplate capacity of 300 Mb/d out of Guernsey, averaging ~312 Mb/d in 3Q25.

Tallgrass and True Companies last Tuesday (Feb. 24) announced a joint open season for Bridger and Pony Express, as well as Bridger and Seahorse. Bridger already has joint tariff with both Pony and Seahorse, so that tariff structure is not new. East Daley believes the open season is intended to secure commitments on Pony Express, in order to provide the commercial backing to justify twinning the pipeline.

Tallgrass wants confirmation that Pony will remain fully utilized before committing capital to expand the system. At the same time, Bridger is evaluating how many Bakken barrels will remain committed if its system is expanded. East Daley believes looping Pony Express is the most likely solution to address a Guernsey takeaway constraint.

See East Daley’s Crude Hub Model for more details.The proposed Bridger expansion comes at a pivotal time, as both Enbridge (ENB) and Energy Transfer (ET) are targeting mid-2026 to finalize their plan to backfill Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) with Canadian crude. We are currently assessing the likelihood that both projects move forward vs a scenario where only one ultimately advances. At this stage, Bridger appears intent on positioning itself to capture Western Canadian barrels. – Amelia Johnson and Keland Rumsey Tickers: ENB, ET.