Old Man Winter has returned with a vengeance. A powerful Arctic storm is spreading through the Lower 48 and cutting into hydrocarbon production, disrupting energy systems and lighting a spark under natural gas prices.
Pipeline samples show US gas production dropped over 9 Bcf/d over the weekend as a powerful Arctic blast descended through the Midwest Friday (Jan.23), disrupting production in several basins while spiking heating demand. The front brought snow, ice and frigid temperatures to major heating markets, including sub-zero temperatures from Minneapolis to Chicago and ice storms across the Midcontinent and Southeast. Meteorologists predict the Lower 48 east of Chicago, including the nation’s largest population centers, will be cold for the balance of the month, and that this could be one of the coldest stretches of the past 30 years.
The Arctic blast has fired up bullish spirits in natural gas. The near-month Henry Hub Feb ’26 contract has rallied over 110% over the latest 10 days, trading at $6.64/MMBtu Monday (Jan. 26) late afternoon. In the Marcellus+Utica, spot prices spiked past $/MMBtu30 The spike reflects the market squeeze from spiking heating demand and lost production.
East Daley’s review of weekend pipeline samples show the largest gas production losses of 2.3 Bcf/d in the Permian Basins where temperatures fell into single digits over the weekend, followed by losses in Appalachia (-2.2 Bcf/d) and the Haynesville (-1.9 Bcf/d). Samples in the Anadarko and Arkoma also show substantial declines from the storm.
Freeze-offs impact supply when extreme cold envelops multiple points in energy delivery systems simultaneously. Wellheads can clog as water freezes and heavier hydrocarbons drop out in the wellbore. Gathering systems can lose pressure or access to power during extreme weather, and gas processing plants can be forced to curtail or operate below capacity. When any link breaks, gas and NGL recovery drops immediately. Several industrial consumers on the Gulf Coast reportedly shut as the front move through Texas and Louisiana, including refiners and petrochemical plants.
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Recent extreme winter events show this pattern clearly. In February 2021, Permian natural gas production fell 16.6% M-o-M as a result of Winter Storm Uri (see figure above). NGL production has also taken major hits. During Winter Storm Enzo in January 2025, US ethane supply fell 6–7.5% M-o-M, while propane supply declined 4–6%. Permian freeze-offs accounted for most of the losses (see figure below).
Texas adopted weatherization rules after Winter Storm Uri, which should reduce the risk of prolonged, system-wide outages. Critical gas infrastructure, including wells, processing plants and pipelines tied to the electricity supply chain, is now required to maintain operations during weather emergencies or face significant penalties, according to regulations set by the Texas Railroad Commission. Even so, weatherization does not eliminate freeze risk. Localized equipment failures, inlet pressure losses and reduced recovery rates have continued to surface during recent storms.
As a result of the cold blast, all eyes in gas markets will be on the next two Energy Information Administration (EIA) gas storage surveys for the weeks ending Jan. 23 and Jan. 30, when a combined 570 Bcf of gas could be withdrawn. The frigid weather is likely to whipsaw the market back into deficit territory before the end of the month, setting up a much tighter market for the balance of winter. – Julian Renton and Jack Weixel.
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