Executive Summary:
Infrastructure: ONEOK and Plains are the sole owners of BridgeTex Pipeline after acquiring OMER’s 50% interest.
Rigs: The total US rig count decreased during the week of July 20 to 525.
Storage: East Daley expects a 340 Mbbl withdrawal from storage for the week ending August 8.
Rigs:
The total US rig count increased during the week of July 27 to 538. Liquids-driven basins remained flat W-o-W at 404.
- Permian (-3):
- Delaware (-4): Devon Energy Corporation (-2), Chevron Corporation, Blackbeard Operating, LLC
- Midland (+1): SM Energy
- Anadarko (+1): Validus Energy II Midcon, LLC
- Denver Julesburg (+1): Occidental Petroleum
- Eagle Ford (+1): ConocoPhillips
Infrastructure:
ONEOK (OKE) and Plains All American (PAA) have bought out the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System’s (OMERS) interest in BridgeTex Pipeline. The companies become the sole owners of a crude oil pipeline that, despite a checkered recent history, is positioned for upside.
OKE increased its ownership in BridgeTex to 60% on July 22, paying $270MM for an additional 30% stake, the company disclosed in its 10-Q last week. In its 2Q25 earnings Friday (Aug. 8), PAA announced an additional 20% stake for $100MM net to its interest. In its 10-Q filed Monday, Plains revealed it paid $180MM for the 20% stake.
The new OKE and PAA stakes imply a $900MM valuation for BridgeTex, or a 7x multiple based on East Daley’s forecast for 2026 EBITDA. Prior to the two deals, BridgeTex was owned by OMERS (50%), OKE (30%) and PAA (20%). Governance in the pipeline is unchanged at an effective 50/50 split between OKE and PAA.
The transactions follow substantial financial restructuring. In 4Q24, BridgeTex recognized $290MM in deferred revenue, contributing to $340MM in quarterly net income, of which OMERS would have received ~$170MM. In 1Q25, the pipeline canceled all FERC-related contracts and shifted to oversight solely by the Texas Railroad Commission, removing federal reporting requirements for volumes and financials.
BridgeTex has historically underperformed its Houston-bound peers, reaching a nadir in 2023 when anchor shipper Occidental (OXY) elected to move its barrels to other pipes. Despite this, we expect to see improving economics as Permian Basin egress tightens. East Daley’s Crude Oil Permian Supply & Demand Model forecasts pipeline utilization at 83% by YE25, with Houston-bound pipelines at 86%. Corpus Christi remains the premier destination for Permian crude. However, with Enterprise Products’ (EPD) Midland-to-ECHO 2 pipeline returning to service later this year, the Houston market will take in 38% of the Permian’s total supply.
In July, BridgeTex filed a revised tariff designed to attract more long-term committed shippers. We expect a brighter future ahead given the improving macro environment (see figure). With a stronger ownership position, streamlined regulation and an improving market backdrop, BridgeTex is positioned for stable utilization in 2026 and potential growth later in the decade.
Storage
East Daley expects a 340 Mbbl withdrawal into commercial and Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories for the week ending August 8. We expect total US stocks, including the SPR, will close at 827.1 MMbbl.
The US natural gas pipeline sample, a proxy for change in oil production, decreased 0.43% W-o-W across all liquids-focused basins. Samples increased 2.68% in the Gulf of America and 0.83% in the Permian. The increases were offset by decreases of 2.58% in the Rockies, 0.84% in the Williston, and 0.60% in the Eagle Ford. The Rockies and the Gulf of America have a high correlation between gas volumes and crude oil volumes, whereas the Permian and Eagle Ford basins correlation is less than 45%.
We expect US crude production to be 13.3 MMb/d. According to US bill of lading data, US crude imports decreased to 5.8 MMb/d. More than 60% of the supply originated from Canadian pipelines and vessels into the US, with the remainder largely coming from vessels carrying crude from Mexico and Nigeria.
As of August 8, there was ~351 Mb/d of refining capacity offline, including downtime for planned and unplanned maintenance. EDA expects gross crude input into refineries to increase, coming in at 17.2 MMb/d.
Vessel traffic monitored by EDA along the Gulf Coast increased W-o-W. There were 29 vessels loaded for the week ending August 8 and 19 the prior week. EDA expects US exports to be 3.7 MMb/d.
The SPR awarded contracts for 6.0 MMbbl to be delivered to Choctaw February–May ‘25 and 2.4 MMbbl to be delivered to Bryan Mound April–May ‘25. The SPR has 403.2 MMbbl in storage as of August 8, 2025.
Regulatory and Tariffs:
Presented by ARBO
Tariffs:
Gray Oak Pipeline, LLC: A new Available Capacity Discount from Conan, Loving County, TX to Crane, Crane County, TX was established. Re-filed to correct a rounding error in certain discount rates.
The above information is provided by ARBO’s Oil Pipeline Tariff Monitor. For more information on regulatory proceedings or tariff rates, please contact please contact Corey Brill via email at [email protected] or phone at 202-505-5296. https://www.goarbo.com/