Already in high demand, US LNG has become an even hotter commodity thanks to the Iran conflict. Market desperation has reached a point that QatarEnergy, the world’s largest LNG supplier, is reportedly in talks for term contracts with US projects.
Qatar’s interest in US LNG is only the tip of the iceberg. With the Strait of Hormuz closure stretching into a seventh month, global LNG supply has tightened to extreme levels, triggering energy shortages and higher prices in Asia and Europe.
QatarEnergy previously met about 20% of global LNG demand, but has seen its output severely curtailed since March. The company declared a force majeure after Iran struck its Ras Laffan liquefaction complex at the outset of the war, causing extensive damage to two of its 14 liquefaction trains. The trains, representing ~12.8 Mtpa of capacity, are expected to require three to five years to repair. Restrictions on Strait of Hormuz shipping have further limited Qatar’s ability to move cargoes from the other trains. QatarEnergy has repeatedly extended its force majeure, currently in place through November. Roughly 80% of Qatar’s LNG shipments typically go to Asian buyers.
QatarEnergy has worked to meet its term contracts by purchasing LNG from US facilities. Over the summer, the company bought 33 spot cargoes from Venture Global (VG). VG’s Plaquemines facility remains in its commissioning phase but has been running at or above nameplate capacity since November 2025. The company expects Phase 1 of the facility to enter commercial operations in late 2026.
Beyond the spot purchases, Reuters reports that QatarEnergy is seeking contracts for 2–3 Mtpa through 2031, shifting away from more expensive spot cargoes and toward longer-term supply agreements. The company is reportedly in talks with Cheniere Energy (LNG), Venture Global and Woodside Energy (WDS).
Venture Global currently has 39 Mtpa of production capacity and only 30 Mtpa committed under sales and purchase agreements (SPAs), leaving roughly 9 Mtpa available for spot cargoes or additional long-term contracts. When its CP2 expansion comes online later this decade, VG’s production capacity will increase to 65 Mtpa. With 48 Mtpa contracted, the company would have nearly 20 Mtpa available.
Cheniere has 64 Mtpa of available production capacity, including the recently finished Corpus Christi Stage 3 project. With roughly 45 Mtpa committed under SPAs, the company will have significant capacity available to serve the market.
QatarEnergy is far from the only buyer looking to US LNG projects. Companies in Thailand, Pakistan and Bangladesh are reportedly discussing long-term agreements with US suppliers as they seek to secure LNG amid the uncertainty in the Middle East. China Gas also recently signed a 20-year agreement with VG for 0.5 Mtpa from the company’s portfolio. INPEX CEO Takayuki Ueda recently said it is weighing an investment in a US LNG project to further diversify its portfolio.
The US is already the largest LNG supplier to the world, and its lead is poised to grow over the next 5-10 years. East Daley Analytics projects total US LNG production capacity could exceed 50 Bcf/d (390 Mtpa) by 2035, giving the industry even more room to expand its role as a reliable global gas supplier. – Emily Cecchini Tickers: LNG, VG, WDS.
Can Crude and NGL Markets Keep Pace with the US LNG Boom?
Rising US LNG feedgas demand has the potential to float all boats — but only if crude oil and NGL markets can support the growth.
Reaching nearly 26 Bcf/d of LNG feedgas demand by the end of 2027 will require producers to drill aggressively across the Permian, Haynesville and Northeast. In the Permian especially, that growth depends on steadier crude prices, to give producers the confidence to commit capital, subscribe to new pipeline capacity and fill the infrastructure midstream companies must build.
Join East Daley Analytics on Wednesday, Sept. 30 as we examine the cross-commodity conditions required to keep the LNG growth story on track:
- What crude price environment will support sustained drilling and pipeline investment?
- Could Permian crude constraints limit associated gas production?
- Where could NGL processing, takeaway and export bottlenecks emerge?
- Which companies are best positioned to capitalize?
LNG demand may be the rising tide — but crude and NGL markets will determine whether all boats can rise with it.
Join East Daley Analytics on Sept. 30 at 10:00 am MT for a discussion at the intersection of energy. Click here to reserve your spot today.
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