Lured by growing local demand, Appalachia gas producers are walking away from long-haul firm transportation (FT). Utica producer Ascent Resources recently cut $700MM of long-term commitments, and it isn’t alone — the basin’s binding constraint is easing as new power plants and data centers offer E&Ps more options for their gas. As a result, capacity built for a producer-push era may no longer earn its keep.
The roster tells the story. Antero Resources (AR) is letting FT contracts expire, targeting a 50-50 split between long-haul and in-basin sales within five years, up from roughly one-third today. Management put it plainly on AR’s 2Q26 earnings call: “Those (contracts) are expiring now. So now we get to pick the best ones.”
Top producer EQT is also moving some gas sales to regional consumers, and diversifying its pricing exposure in the process. EQT in July signed a 10-year, 325 MMcf/d agreement with CPV’s ~2 GW Shay power project in Doddridge County, WV — indexed to PJM power prices, not local gas.
East Daley Analytics recently raised our Northeast market outlook, driven by growing consumption within the Appalachian Basin. We estimate about 2.2 Bcf/d of new regional demand for data centers, plus another ~2 Bcf/d of growth resulting from industrial expansions and coal plant retirements.
In the case of Ascent, the private operator said it executed a transaction in July to optimize its FT portfolio, reducing its long-term commitments by $700MM while improving future margins. Ascent provided no further details, but the transaction is likely an asset management deal signed with a gas marketing firm.
According to East Daley’s ‘Gas Pipeline Customer Contracts’ dashboard in Energy Data Studio, Ascent controls 2.9 Bcf/d of capacity on six pipeline systems, including 1 Bcf/d on Rover Pipeline (see figure above from Energy Data Studio). Nearly 1.7 Bcf/d of Ascent’s portfolio is contracted through 2045.
Northeast Supply Growth Masks Churn
Appalachia is the US’ largest source of natural gas, and East Daley expects production to increase in the years ahead to meet growing demand. Nevertheless, we expect significant churn behind the scenes, with a few select producers outperforming as others tread water or decline.
We forecast legacy Appalachian wells will shed 13.4 Bcf/d of gross production from 2026 to 2030, a 13.6% compound annual decline (see figure at right). Replacing this lost supply and funding growth takes 20.2 Bcf/d of new-well volume — netting the basin 6.7 Bcf/d of growth.
This is a wellhead-pressure issue, not a pipeline problem. EQT estimates that one-third of basin supply could struggle to hold flat by decade-end; East Daley’s asset-level forecasts predict 37% of Northeast G&P systems will see volumes decline from 2026.
Amid this churn, the value of some pipeline capacity will hold up better than others. For example, demand-backed capacity keeps its scarcity rent. Millennium Pipeline averaged ~94% mainline utilization from December 2025 through February 2026, and 62% of the pipeline’s book is backed by local distribution companies, power producers and third-party marketers.
Producer-push capacity is the side likely to lose value: Range Resources (RRC) holds ~3.3 Bcf/d of firm transport against ~1.5 Bcf/d of gas production, according to Energy Data Studio, while AR has ~1.1 Bcf/d of contracts expiring by 2029.
Producers are dropping long-haul capacity while still paying for gathering, processing and compression. MPLX ran its Marcellus plants 96% full in 2Q26, and Range — roughly 90% of the Harmon Creek complex by volume — backs the new 300 MMcf/d Harmon Creek III plant that started up in 3Q26. Range is also adding ~250 MMcf/d of transport this year, bucking the broader trend. Antero Midstream (AM) is building the East Side Express project toward that same power load, targeting 1.5-2.0 Bcf/d of capacity by 2028-29.
Bottom Line: Growing local demand provides Appalachia producers with more options to sell their gas and avoid long-haul commitments. East Daley favors compression, gathering and processing attached to high-quality inventory. We would underwrite new long-haul capacity only where named load sits at the far end — and increasingly, that load sits inside the basin itself.– Jaxson Fryer Tickers: AM, AR, EQT, MPLX, RRC.
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East Daley Analytics is pleased to announce the Canada Supply & Demand report. The Canada S&D completes our North American model, providing a fully integrated supply and demand forecast for crude oil and natural gas. East Daley follows molecules from Canadian production through US infrastructure to end-markets. Clients now have a continental view to anticipate trends, from how Canadian gas is reshaping Midwest markets, to how crude imports flow to Gulf Coast refiners. The Canada S&D report and dataset is available exclusively in Energy Data Studio. Reach out to learn more about East Daley’s North American energy model.
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