The Daley Note

Golden Pass LNG is inching closer to a long-anticipated startup. The latest Gulf Coast export facility could begin making LNG by early March, ExxonMobil (XOM) CEO Darren Woods told analysts on the company’s 4Q25 investor call Friday (Jan. 30).

Woods’ remarks follow an important step in the commissioning process for Train 1. On Jan. 7, Golden Pass announced that a cooldown cargo from Qatar had berthed at the terminal near Port Arthur, TX. However, the announcement appears to have come late as ship-tracking firm Vortexa shows the Imsaikah arrived at Golden Pass on Dec. 8, docking at the facility for nearly a month before departing on Jan. 6. The ship’s arrival is in line with the timing announced by Golden Pass in October.

The delivery marks a significant milestone in the commissioning of Golden Pass as it prepares to begin producing LNG. Cooldown cargoes allow new LNG facilities to chill equipment and pipework prior to first LNG production to bring down temperatures and stress-test critical systems. An infrared heat map image taken Jan. 12 shows an active flare at the Golden Pass site (see map), suggesting progress in the commissioning phase.

The joint venture between XOM and QatarEnergy stated in early January that it “expects to begin exporting LNG from Train 1 early in the new year,” but provided no specific dates. LNG Canada, which has trains of similar size to Golden Pass, received its cooldown cargo about three months before it loaded its first export cargo. If Golden Pass were to follow a similar timeline, the facility likely wouldn’t export its first cargo until around mid- to late March. That would roughly line up with the timeline XOM executives presented on the latest earning call for first LNG production.

In East Daley Analytics’ latest Macro Supply & Demand Forecast, we model Train 1 at Golden Pass to reach full production in April ’26. Demand increases when Trains 2-3 start operations in 2027 (see figure). The project is one of several, along with Cheniere Energy’s (LNG) Corpus Christi Stage 3, that we anticipate will ramp gas demand for LNG exports in 2026, underpinning our bullish price outlook this year.

While the facility is receiving gas from the Golden Pass Pipeline, volumes are very small, with deliveries averaging less than 10 MMcf/d since the beginning of December. Golden Pass was authorized by FERC to introduce fuel gas to Train 1 on Nov. 12, but the facility still needs approval from FERC before it can begin receiving feedgas. Once granted, Golden Pass will be able to start producing LNG. – Ian Heming Tickers: LNG, XOM.