Executive Summary:
Infrastructure: The EIA has sharply revised up ethane exports in September to a new record high, reflecting gains from Enterprise Products’ Neches River Terminal.
Exports: Total US exports increased 4.3% W-o-W for the week ending Jan. 23, supported by a 14.7% rise in LPG exports.
Rigs: The total US rig count increased during the week of Jan. 17 from 524 to 527.
Flows: US natural gas volumes in pipeline samples averaged 66.0 Bcf/d for the week ending Jan. 25, down 4.3% W-o-W.
Calendar:
Infrastructure:
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has sharply revised ethane exports higher in September to a new record high, reflecting gains from Enterprise Products’ (EPD) Neches River Terminal.
In its October Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA revised total ethane exports up 27%, from 536 Mb/d to 681 Mb/d, establishing a new all-time high for US ethane exports. The upward revision was almost entirely in the Gulf Coast (PADD 3), where September exports increased by 128 Mb/d (+32%) to 524 Mb/d.
EPD’s new terminal near Beaumont, TX is likely behind the big jump in PADD 3 exports. The Neches River Terminal started operations in mid-July and saw activity surge in the ensuing months, based on ship-tracking data monitored by East Daley Analytics.
While EIA is widely viewed as the industry’s source of record due to its census-based surveys, reported data can be subject to timing delays when responses are received late. Regardless, the revised export data provides useful context for evaluating broader ethane market dynamics.
Viewed from another angle, the relationship between ethane storage and prices offers additional context for the September export surge. As shown in the chart below, ethane prices weakened in August, potentially incentivizing higher export volumes the following month. However, despite September marking an all-time high for ethane exports, EIA data shows ethane inventories continued to build in October, rising to 82.97 MMbbl — a record high for storage inventory.
This divergence highlights that strong export demand alone has been insufficient to offset broader supply growth, reinforcing the view that the September export peak reflected favorable market conditions rather than a tightening ethane balance.
Ethane prices have recovered modestly since August 2025 but remain well below levels earlier in the year. At these price levels, purchasing economics remain attractive, increasing the willingness of market participants to buy ethane and supporting East Daley’s forecast for a near-term decline in storage. Looking more closely at the price chart, ethane prices fell sharply toward the end of the year and remain at the lowest levels in the last 12 months, with prices in January averaging ~$0.22/gal month to date. With prices still favorable for buyers, a demand-side response appears to be materializing, reinforcing expectations that ethane inventories are drawing in the near term.
Exports:
Total US exports increased 4.3% W-o-W for the week ending Jan. 23, supported by a 14.7% rise in LPG exports, while in contrast ethane exports declined sharply by 29.4%.
LPG export increased across nearly all terminals, with a slip in Marcus Hook from 78 Mb/d to 39 Mb/d W-o-W.
Neches River rebounded from zero to 149 Mb/d, while other terminals saw broad declines, highlighted by Marcus Hook falling from 121 Mb/d to zero.
Rigs:
The total US rig count increased by 3 during the week of Jan. 17, from 524 to 527. Liquids-driven basins gained 1 rig W-o-W, from 395 to 396.
- Permian:
- Midland (+1): LRP Energy LLC
Flows:
US natural gas volumes in pipeline samples averaged 66.0 Bcf/d for the week ending Jan. 25, down 4.3% W-o-W.
Flows in major basins reflected the start of shut-ins over the weekend from extreme weather. The Haynesville sample declined 5.5% W-o-W to 9.0 Bcf/d, while the Marcellus+Utica fell 3.2% to 30.7 Bcf/d. Conversely, the Barnett sample jumped 19.0% to 1 Bcf/d.
Samples in liquids-focused basins declined 9.0% to 17.4 Bcf/d. The Anadarko sample fell 15.5% to 3.8 Bcf/d, and the Permian sample was down 9.1% W-o-W.
Calendar:
