Executive Summary:
Infrastructure: Since the initial volume increase on Elk Creek in 2Q25, the pipeline saw another step-up in 3Q25, with throughput rising by +33 Mb/d.
Exports: LPG exports increased across all terminals for the week ending Jan. 2, driving a 34% W-o-W gain.
Rigs: The total US rig count increased during the week of Dec. 21 from 513 to 516.
Flows: US natural gas volumes in pipeline samples averaged 69.3 Bcf/d for the week ending Jan. 4, down 1.5% W-o-W.
Calendar: Basin S&D Update
Infrastructure:
Since the initial volume increase on Elk Creek in 2Q25, the pipeline saw another step-up in 3Q25, with throughput rising by +33 Mb/d. ONEOK (OKE) continues to actively reallocate volumes from its legacy Bakken pipeline to Elk Creek, reflected in a -8 Mb/d decline on the legacy line. Volumes on the Vantage pipeline also declined by -7 Mb/d over the same period. While the Vantage decline cannot be directly linked to Elk Creek movements, the concurrent reductions across these systems suggest that up to ~15 Mb/d of volumes may have been redirected toward Elk Creek, accounting for only a portion of the observed increase.
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Importantly, unlike the 1Q25–2Q25 period, the Q-o-Q increase in 3Q25 is not reflected in reported Bakken plant data, where total NGL production rose by just +2 Mb/d and remained broadly flat across products. Absent evidence of incremental supply growth, the remaining volumes are consistent with intra-system reallocations at the plant or fractionation level, where reporting is limited. The 3Q25 increase therefore appears driven by pipeline-level volume shifting rather than new NGL production.
Exports:
LPG exports increased across all terminals for the week ending Jan. 2, driving a 34% W-o-W gain. The jump was led by Phillips 66 with a 109% increase. Ethane exports also saw a modest lift, pushing total US exports up 30% W-o-W At the terminal level, a 36% decline in ethane exports at EPD’s Morgan’s Point was more than offset by combined volume increases at EPD’s Neches River and ET’s Nederland, lifting total ethane exports by nearly 14%.
Rigs:
The total US rig count increased during the week of Dec. 21 from 513 to 516. Liquids-driven basins increased 1 rig W-o-W from 386 to 387.
- Anadarko (+1): Vincent Oil
- Uinta (+1): SM Energy
- Powder River (+1): Ballard Petroleum
- Permian:
- Delaware (+1): Chevron
- Midland (-1): ExxonMobil
- Bakken (-1): Chord Energy
- DJ (-1): ExxonMobil
Flows:
US natural gas volumes in pipeline samples averaged 69.3 Bcf/d for the week ending Jan. 4, down 1.5% W-o-W.
Major gas basins declined 1.5% W-o-W to average 42.3 Bcf/d. The Haynesville sample slid 0.1% to 9.7 Bcf/d, while the Marcellus+Utica declined 2.4% to 31.8 Bcf/d. The Barnett sample jumped 23% W-o-W.
Samples in liquids-focused basins also decreased 1.5% to 19.0 Bcf/d. The Permian sample declined 1.5% to 6.2 Bcf/d, and the Eagle Ford sample increased 4.5% W-o-W.
Calendar:
