Executive Summary:
Infrastructure: The latest ship-tracking data shows most terminals saw increased exports in 3Q25.
Exports: Total NGL exports declined 23.6% W-o-W for the week ending Oct. 12.
Rigs: The total US rig count decreased during the week of Oct. 5 to 519. Liquids-driven basins decreased 5 rigs W-o-W from 402 to 397.
Flows: US natural gas volumes averaged 68.8 Bcf/d in pipeline samples for the week ending Oct. 19, approximately flat (-0.1%) W-o-W.
Calendar: EIA Weeklies 10/29, EIA Monthlies 10/3.
Infrastructure:
The 3Q earnings season approaches, what East Daley Analytics dubs “Christmas in October,” and the latest export data provides early insight into what will likely dominate discussions across the midstream space. Here’s what we’re seeing in the field:
Targa Resources (TRGP)
We expect Targa to report a modest 2.7% Q-o-Q gain in NGL exports, maintaining steady market share despite ongoing volatility. The company’s 25 Mb/d debottleneck project will soon lift Galena Park export capacity to 500 Mb/d. Looking further ahead, Targa’s 150 Mb/d dock expansion, scheduled for 2H27, aligns with its newly announced Speedway NGL pipeline, expected in service by 3Q27. These projects position Targa for continued growth in export capacity and supply flexibility.
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Energy Transfer (ET)
ET is expected to report a 26% increase in ethane exports and an 11% increase in LPG exports. The ethane uplift was largely driven by rising flows to China, consistent with ET’s close relationship with Satellite Chemical. ET’s recently completed Nederland Flexport expansion (early 3Q) contributed to growth. However, with overall infrastructure running at roughly 80% utilization, the key question is whether ET can sustain volumes as LPG arbitrage margins tighten and the spot market normalizes.
Enterprise Products (EPD)
EPD tells a tale of two commodities: expected ethane exports up 10% while LPG exports fall 6% Q-o-Q. The early startup of the Neches River terminal underscores a strong global demand outlook for ethane, even as the LPG arbitrage window narrows, leaving ample upside for Neches River Phase 2.
However, EPD underperformed its two largest peers in the LPG export market. The company also cited lower spot rates, including one key contract renegotiated downward, signaling a bearish tone for LPG exports. While 85% of LPG capacity remains under long-term contract, the volume decline may reflect increased spot competition, likely from Energy Transfer.
Exports:
Total NGL exports declined 23.6% W-o-W for the week ending Oct. 12. LPG exports dropped sharply by 28.9%, with lower volumes reported across nearly all major docks except for EPD’s EHT, which saw a 2.5% W-o-W increase. Ethane exports also rose 2.5% W-o-W, though performance varied by dock. EPD’s Morgan’s Point fell 52%, while the Neches River terminal surged 400% to 149 Mb/d, roughly 29 Mb/d above its Phase 1 nameplate capacity of 120 Mb/d.
Rigs:
The total US rig count decreased during the week of Oct. 5 to 519. Liquids-driven basins decreased 5 rigs W-o-W from 402 to 397.
- Permian:
- Delaware (-4): Mewbourne Oil, EOG Resources, ConocoPhillips, BP
- Midland (-2): Moriah Operating, Gunn Oil
- Uinta (+1): FourPoint Resources, LLC
Flows:
US natural gas volumes averaged 68.8 Bcf/d in pipeline samples for the week ending Oct. 19, approximately flat (-0.1%) W-o-W.
Major gas basin samples increased 1.0% W-o-W to 42.7 Bcf/d. The Haynesville sample declined 3.0% to 9.6 Bcf/d, while the Marcellus+Utica sample increased 1.9% to 32.1 Bcf/d.
Samples in liquids-focused basins declined 2.1% W-o-W to 18.4 Bcf/d. The Permian sample fell 2.5% to 5.9 Bcf/d, while the Anadarko sample decreased 3.6%.
Calendar:
