Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG will be the next LNG facility to come online, adding ~3.4 Bcf/d of new demand in the toe of the Louisiana boot. Three major pipeline expansions are coming online over the next few quarters to feed the project, while also displacing gas bound for Florida markets.
First, the Venice Lateral extension on Enbridge’s (ENB) Texas Eastern Transmission (TETCO) will add 1.26 Bcf/d of new capacity, pulling gas from Gillis on TETCO’s Louisiana mainline to feed Venture Global’s Gator Express header pipeline. On April 4th, the FERC granted TETCO permission to place the new line into service and, on April 23rd, the FERC granted Venture Global approval to place into service the Gator Express Pipeline, Plaquemines’ header pipe. Gator Express is comprised of two co-located pipeline laterals, both with a capacity of ~1.9 Bcf/d. Phase 1, which has receipt interconnects with Texas Eastern Transmission and Tennessee Gas Pipeline.
The TETCO interconnect is in-service, but other than a single day of test volumes, the line is not currently flowing; Plaquemines LNG still needs to import three LNG cargoes to power the liquefaction train cooldown before the facility can start taking pipeline feed gas for production. At CERAweek in March, Venture Global announced that Plaquemines would start taking gas in June, with first LNG production expected this summer. East Daley forecasts Plaquemines LNG Ph1 (2.25 Bcf/d) to ramp to full capacity by 2Q25.
The next expansion to come online is Kinder Morgan’s (KMI) Evangeline Pass project on Southern Natural Gas pipeline (SNG) and Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP). SNG plans to add 1.1 Bcf/d of southbound capacity and lease it to TGP, receiving gas from TGP in Mississippi and redelivering that gas to TGP in southern Louisiana, after which it will flow to the Gator Express interconnect. KMI reports a tentative in-service date of November ’24. Early filings for the project mention a purchase agreement of up to 2.0 Bcf/d between Plaquemines LNG and TGP.
The last major supply expansion is TC Energy’s (TRP) Columbia Gulf East Lateral Xpress Project (EXLP), consisting of 575 MMcf/d flowing east from Gillis and 150 MMcf/d flowing west from Venice, for a total 725 MMcf/d. The estimated in-service date for ELXP is February ’25.
With eastbound flows out of Louisiana running near capacity, en route to meet power demand in Florida, and more than 3 Bcf/d of new demand in the region, East Daley expects FGT Z3 gas buyers to pay a premium starting in 2025 through 2028, at which point Transco’s Southeast Supply Enhancement project (~1.6 Bcf/d, ISD 4Q27) should help alleviate the pressure.
East Daley Analytics tracks Plaquemines and other Louisiana-based LNG projects in the Southeast Gulf Supply and Demand Forecast. The Southeast Gulf forecast combines our regional supply forecasts for the Haynesville and other Gulf Coast basins with midstream pipe flows/expansions and new LNG demand, for a comprehensive view of the regional gas market. The figure shows EDA’s forecast for pipe flows in the southeastern Louisiana sub-region of the Southeast Gulf Forecast. —Alex Gafford Tickers: KMI, TRP, ENB
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