As Bakken oil production continues to grow, East Daley Analytics expects the competition to move incremental barrels will come down to two choices: Energy Transfer’s (ET) Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL), or True Companies’ Bridger Pipeline. Both systems have some spare capacity and ultimately lead to Gulf Coast markets.
In the Crude Hub Model, East Daley forecasts Bakken crude oil production to grow by 300 Mb/d from January ‘24 to December ‘26. Over the next two years, we model supply growth of 64 Mb/d (+5%) by YE24 and 106 Mb/d (+8%) by YE25.
Enbridge’s (ENB) North Dakota Pipeline (NDPL) offers one of the best options to move Bakken crude. NDPL moves supply from the heart of the Williston Basin to the Clearbrook market to supply PADD 2 (Midwest) refiners. However, NDPL is presently >90% utilized and has limited spare capacity to handle growth. EDA's Bakken-Guernsey-DJ Supply & Demand Forecast expects NDPL to run full (>95% utilized) by 3Q24 (see figure). 
DAPL is part of ET’s Bakken Pipeline system, which moves Bakken barrels to Patoka, IL and on to the Gulf Coast via the Energy Transfer Crude Oil Pipeline (ETCOP). This is an advantageous route as ET is able to maintain control of premium Bakken barrels all the way to export docks and avoid blending with lower-quality crude. Additionally, shippers can move crude to Bayou Bridge Pipeline to feed Lake Charles-area refineries or deliver to the St. James market in Louisiana.
DAPL can carry up to 750 Mb/d and today is 88% utilized, with 90 Mb/d of egress still available, according to the Bakken-Guernsey-DJ Supply & Demand Forecast. EDA forecasts DAPL to be fully utilized at >95% by 2H25.
True Companies offers a second option for moving Bakken crude oil to the Gulf Coast. True’s joint tariff with Tallgrass’ Pony Express offers seamless flow on Bridger Pipeline in the Bakken to Pony Express at Guernsey, which then delivers crude to Cushing. From Cushing, barrels can reach the Gulf Coast via the Seaway or MarketLink pipelines. Unfortunately, this option is not available as Pony Express is fully utilized.
Bridger has a second option to connect in Fort Laramie, WY using Magellan Midstream’s joint tariff with Plains All American’s (PAA) Cheyenne and Cowboy pipelines. These pipes connect to Saddlehorn Pipeline in Platteville, CO, and Saddlehorn delivers to Cushing. This route has the added complication of coordinating Bridger movements with Magellan’s joint tariff and the lost Bakken quality spec, as barrels are blended into a Saddlehorn Crude Oil or Saddlehorn Light Crude Oil spec.
We view DAPL as the optimal route when looking at available space, reliability and transportation costs. Uncommitted rates for Bakken to the Gulf Coast are at $9.75/bbl, and committed rates range between $5.16-7.56/bbl.
NDPL and the Bridger/Pony Express joint tariff also offer competitive rates to Cushing, but lack available space for Bakken producers. Magellan’s joint tariff offers a great incentive rate at $3.32/bbl from Fort Laramie to Cushing for a solid second option. – Kristine Oleszek Tickers: ENB, ET, PAA.
Join East Daley’s Next Webinar - NGLs Heading into a Super-Volatility Cycle
Don't miss this exclusive webinar diving into trends in NGL markets. We will look at:
- NGLs & commodity ties: Gas, NGLs and Crude - One constraint will constrain all
- Permian back on the board in 4Q24 and what it means for supply
- Activity afoot in the Bakken – Double H impact to the NGL market & the long game
Join us on August 28 at 10 AM MST. Register here.
Sign Up for the Crude Oil Edge
East Daley’s Crude Oil Edge provides weekly updates on the US crude oil market including supply and demand fundamentals, basin-level views, and analysis of market constraints and infrastructure proposals. We explore sub-basin dynamics and provide market insights on crude oil flows, production growth, and import and export characteristics. Sign up now for the Crude Oil Edge.
The Daley Note
Subscribe to The Daley Note (TDN) for midstream insights delivered daily to your inbox. The Daley Note covers news, commodity prices, security prices and EDA research likely to affect markets in the short term.
