Chevron (CVX) on July 18 completed the $53B acquisition of Hess Corp., giving the oil major a 37.8% stake in Hess Midstream (HESM). CVX has been coy about its plans for Hess, but the industry is rife with talk of a potential sale of the Bakken assets.
Hess brings a diverse portfolio, including deepwater leases offshore Guyana and the Gulf of America, plus 465,000 acres and the HESM position in the Bakken. The Guyana leases were widely considered the prize of the deal, and the Gulf acreage is complementary to CVX’s existing operations. The Bakken in North Dakota would be a new foray for the company. Chevron has guided to $10-15B in asset divestments by 2028, fueling speculation that it could eventually put the Bakken assets up for sale.
Among HESM’s assets, the 400 MMcf/d Tioga plant is the Bakken flywheel. Asset data in Energy Data Studio shows plant volumes of 475 MMcf/d in June ‘25, including ~90 MMcf/d of rich gas delivered on the 12-inch Alliance Tioga Lateral to Alliance Pipeline (see figure from the ‘G&P System Analysis’ tool in Energy Data Studio). The lateral has 126 MMcf/d of capacity and gives HESM unique optionality for managing flows at the Tioga plant.
HESM has guided to ~10% growth in gas volumes in 2026 and ~5% in 2027. East Daley Analytics’ Williston Basin outlook is for roughly flat production, so HESM is outperforming its peers. Drilling activity on the Tioga G&P system recently peaked at 9 rigs in February, though counts have declined with lower oil prices. There were 3-4 rigs running in July, according to East Daley’s rig allocations. The top producers behind the system are broken out by volume in Energy Data Studio and include CVX (27%; legacy Hess), Chord Energy (CHRD; 15%), Devon Energy (DVN; 14%), ConocoPhillips (COP; 10%) and Continental (10%).
Several factors support stable cash flows from the Tioga assets. HESM’s minimum volume commitments (MVCs) are set annually at 80% of Hess’ nominations on a three-year rolling basis, and those agreements were extended through 2033. Gas-to-oil ratios (GORs) are also rising in the Bakken, so gas recovery should continue to increase even if oil production holds flat.
HESM is also expanding the Tioga system to capture more market in the Bakken. The company is adding compression on the gathering footprint in 2025 and marketing its services to nearby producers to pull in more volumes. A planned ~125 MMcf/d processing plant north of the Missouri River, targeted for 2027, extends the runway for growth.
Management’s 2025 outlook implies system-wide gas volumes of ~455–465 MMcf/d and assumes 4 rigs on the footprint. EDA projects less growth in Energy Data Studio because we model fewer rigs on the system than management.
Tioga is already operating at high utilization, but it can continue growing throughput in a flat-oil outlook for the Williston by capturing more market, with the 125 MMcf/d processing expansion providing headroom for growth. – Jaxson Fryer Tickers: CHRD, COP, CVX, DVN, HESM.
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