MDU Resources (MDU) reached a final investment decision (FID) on Sept. 30 for the Bakken East Pipeline. The decision is a watershed event for Bakken producers – the project will support in-state demand growth in North Dakota and break open egress constraints that have historically limited markets for Bakken gas.
MDU subsidiary WBI Energy will develop the intrastate project. The initial design capacity is 1.4 Bcf/d, nearly double the ~750 MMcf/d contemplated in the initial proposal. WBI is designing the system to accommodate additional growth as demand develops.
The roughly 350-mile pipeline will connect the Bakken producing region near Watford City with a WBI compressor station near Mapleton, west of Fargo. The project includes modifications to three existing compressor stations, four new compressor stations and related lateral pipelines (see project map from MDU). Following a binding open season, MDU cited secured customer commitments for its decision to proceed. Phase I, extending to central North Dakota, is targeted for late 2029, followed by the eastern segment in late 2030.
Bakken East isn’t the only project positioning to move gas across the state. Intensity Infrastructure Partners and Rainbow Energy Center are advancing another west-to-east pipeline in North Dakota. That project has not yet reached FID; however, Phase I would transport ~1.1 Bcf/d from near Watford City to Washburn, with startup targeted for early 2029. Phase II would extend the system to Casselton, carrying up to 430 MMcf/d farther east.
The key question is how quickly downstream demand will materialize. According to WBI, Bakken East is intended to serve power generation, industrial facilities and local distribution companies in central and eastern North Dakota. Several proposed power projects provide a clearer picture of that opportunity:
- Minnkota Power Cooperative plans a 400 MW gas-fired plant in Harmony Township, north of Mapleton, ND, with potential startup in 2031–32. CEO Mac McLennan told the North Dakota Monitor that Bakken East makes the project possible. The plant still requires regulatory approval.
- Xcel Energy (XEL) has proposed the 447 MW Bison Generating Station in Cass County, ND. Its regulatory filings identify costly gas transportation upgrades as a barrier, and describe efforts to secure firm transportation through either WBI or Intensity. Xcel is targeting startup in 2032.
- Farther west, Rainbow is evaluating new gas-fired generation scalable to 2.1 GW at its Energy Park near Coal Creek Station in McLean County, ND. Rainbow has linked the expansion to its planned pipeline, while Intensity specifically identifies future generation at Coal Creek as a use for available capacity. The full generation buildout remains a development opportunity.
While many of these power projects are still under development, they have the potential to open significant new flexibility for Bakken producers. East Daley forecasts Bakken residue production will reach 2.7 Bcf/d in 2030 and hold steady through 2035 (see figure above from Energy Data Studio). At full capacity, Bakken East would provide an outlet for over half of the production from the Williston Basin.
East Daley sees a credible demand case for additional eastbound infrastructure, but our residue gas outlook suggests substantial spare capacity will remain after the projects enter service. Minnkota and Xcel’s targeted generation dates follow the pipelines’ startup windows, while Rainbow’s full buildout remains uncertain. New pipelines are likely to divert volumes from existing routes, but sustained utilization across the broader system will depend on additional supply and demand growth. – Emily Cecchini Tickers: MDU, XEL.
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