Texas’ pause on data-center permitting will affect nearly half of the projects planned in the state, amounting to 46 GW of potential electric capacity, a review by East Daley Analytics finds.
On Aug. 3, Governor Greg Abbott directed the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to complete an audit of proposed data centers, citing reliability risks to the Texas grid. The directive applies to any data center seeking approval for a load of 75 MW or greater that requests an interconnection with the ERCOT transmission system.
Affected projects must complete the audit before advancing through ERCOT’s interconnection permitting process. According to grid officials, the audit will likely be completed by YE26, resulting in at least a five-month delay in the review of these projects.
East Daley currently tracks 162 proposed data centers in Texas totaling 102 GW (28% of US total). Of the 162 projects, we estimate 77 will be affected by the audit. They represent ~46 GW of data center load and 7.2 Bcf/d of potential gas demand, assuming natural gas were to generate 100% of their electricity needs. This share is out of 16.2 Bcf/d of potential gas demand in Texas for data centers, as seen on East Daley’s ‘Data Centers’ dashboard in Energy Data Studio (see figure).
Our flagged list includes data centers with an expected load greater than 75 MW, projects that do not plan on-site generation, and those that had not received ERCOT interconnect approval prior to the Aug. 3 directive. The affected data centers now share increased in-service time risk; if the audit lasts longer than a few months, these projects may be pushed even further into the future.
Several of the top data centers affected by the pause are shown in the table above, representing 14 GW of the 46 GW total for Texas. They are all large projects that had not yet received an approval to connect to the state’s grid.
The Texas audit does not necessarily remove these projects from the demand outlook, but it does introduce additional in-service timing risk. If the review extends beyond year-end, the associated power and natural gas demand for these projects could be pushed further into the forecast. – Alec Gravelle.
Can Crude and NGL Markets Keep Pace with the US LNG Boom?
Rising US LNG feedgas demand has the potential to float all boats — but only if crude oil and NGL markets can support the growth.
Reaching nearly 26 Bcf/d of LNG feedgas demand by the end of 2027 will require producers to drill aggressively across the Permian, Haynesville and Northeast. In the Permian especially, that growth depends on steadier crude prices, to give producers the confidence to commit capital, subscribe to new pipeline capacity and fill the infrastructure midstream companies must build.
Join East Daley Analytics on Wednesday, Sept. 30 as we examine the cross-commodity conditions required to keep the LNG growth story on track:
- What crude price environment will support sustained drilling and pipeline investment?
- Could Permian crude constraints limit associated gas production?
- Where could NGL processing, takeaway and export bottlenecks emerge?
- Which companies are best positioned to capitalize?
LNG demand may be the rising tide — but crude and NGL markets will determine whether all boats can rise with it.
Join East Daley Analytics on Sept. 30 at 10:00 am MT for a discussion at the intersection of energy. Click here to reserve your spot today.
One Market, One Model: Gain a Holistic View of North America Supply & Demand
East Daley Analytics is pleased to announce the Canada Supply & Demand report. The Canada S&D completes our North American model, providing a fully integrated supply and demand forecast for crude oil and natural gas. East Daley follows molecules from Canadian production through US infrastructure to end-markets. Clients now have a continental view to anticipate trends, from how Canadian gas is reshaping Midwest markets, to how crude imports flow to Gulf Coast refiners. The Canada S&D report and dataset is available exclusively in Energy Data Studio. Reach out to learn more about East Daley’s North American energy model.
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