The Daley Note

Sunrise Project Adds Southbound Optionality, but LNG Leverage Looks Indirect

Enbridge, LNG, Natural Gas, TC Energy, The Daley Note, WCSB

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Enbridge’s (ENB) Westcoast pipeline in British Columbia is becoming a bigger part of the story for Western Canadian natural gas takeaway. But not all expansions carry the same LNG torque.

ENB has three Westcoast expansions underway: Aspen Point (+535 MMcf/d, late 2026 in-service date), Birch Grove (+178 MMcf/d, 3Q28 ISD) and Sunrise (+300 MMcf/d, late 2028 ISD). All three support growing demand in British Columbia, including LNG export projects. But the latest Sunrise project appears less directly exposed to LNG growth than greenfield and LNG-dedicated pipes like Coastal GasLink.

The key distinction is geography and market pull: Coastal GasLink provides direct Montney-to-Kitimat connectivity for LNG Canada and Cedar LNG, while Sunrise will add capacity on the southern Westcoast system, serving load in British Columbia and the US Pacific Northwest.

That matters because Canada’s LNG growth will likely be centered around LNG Canada Phases 1-2 (~3.3 Bcf/d) and Cedar LNG (~360 MMcf/d) near Kitimat (see graphic). The two LNG projects benefit from direct upstream connectivity, purpose-built takeaway and deepwater export access.

By contrast, Vancouver-area LNG demand faces a more challenged setup. The corridor is tied into existing utility, industrial and US export markets, leaving new LNG projects to compete with established regional demand. It also lacks the same scale of sanctioned LNG capacity and direct greenfield pipe connectivity that supports Kitimat-area developments.

As a result, Woodfibre LNG is the only new LNG project in the Vancouver area directly connected to the Westcoast system, and its ~250 MMcf/d offtake is much smaller than the Kitimat buildout (see graphic above). ENB also owns a stake in Woodfibre LNG, giving it added commercial exposure to the project.

Investor Takeaway: Sunrise helps Enbridge expand its BC franchise while adding southbound optionality. The project doesn’t appear to have the same LNG leverage as Coastal GasLink. It offers more balance to meet regional demand growth, including Woodfibre-linked upside and broader LNG optionality. – Garrett Streit and Alec Gravelle Tickers: ENB, TRP.

 

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