Executive Summary:
Infrastructure: Antero Midstream used its 1Q26 update to highlight a notable milestone: the first dry Marcellus gas pad in more than a decade on its dedicated acreage, connected during 2Q26.
Exports: NGL exports declined 4.4% W-o-W for the week ending June 5, driven by a drop in LPG and ethane exports.
Rigs: The total US rig count remained unchanged at 560 rigs for the week of May 30. Liquids-driven basins remained at 429 rigs W-o-W.
Infrastructure:
Antero Midstream (AM) used its 1Q26 update to highlight a notable milestone: the first dry Marcellus gas pad in more than a decade on its dedicated acreage, connected during 2Q26.
The milestone is bullish for AM’s gas volumes — in fact, East Daley Analytics forecasts meaningful growth on AM’s Northeast dry gathering system. East Daley’s G&P system analysis tool in Energy Data Studio enables us to track producer activity and system-level throughput to forecast dry gas production across AM’s footprint (see chart below). Moreover, the milestone should change how investors think about the source and quality of that growth.
Our read is that NGL constraints are starting to influence Antero Resources’ (AR) drilling decisions, pushing the producer toward drier targets despite its liquids-rich identity. That shift should still support AM’s gathering and compression volumes, particularly on the dry gas system. The question is whether the growth story around dry gas comes at the expense of liquids-rich upside as AR optimizes around infrastructure constraints.
That matters because AM’s growth depends on AR’s ability to add volumes across dedicated acreage. AM generates most of its cash flow from gathering and compression, not processing or fractionation, and gathering volumes still follow AR’s drilling economics.
AR is one of Appalachia’s most liquids-exposed producers, with NGLs and oil representing 32% of its estimated 2026 production. If NGL takeaway, fractionation or export constraints make drilling for rich gas less attractive, either by raising costs or limiting realized prices, AR has more incentive to allocate capital toward dry gas acreage. For AM, that shifts the growth mix toward dry gas and may reduce future earnings tied to wet-gas services.
AR is already pointing in that direction. The producer notes that an “increased focus on dry gas development lowers exposure to overall processing costs.” The lower cost may support AR’s well returns and AM’s dry-gas gathering outlook, but it also signals that development of wet gas carries more friction at a time when NGL outlets look tighter than gas takeaway.
The infrastructure outlook reinforces the shift. The Northeast natural gas market has a line of sight on several new pipeline projects tied to LNG, power and data center demand, including Williams’ (WMB) Southeast Supply Enhancement and Mountain Valley Pipeline’s Boost expansion. Meanwhile, new NGL takeaway is limited. That backdrop should support growth on AM’s dry gathering system, but it also favors midstream systems with cleaner exposure to demand-led dry gas development and less reliance on liquids-rich drilling economics.
Investor Takeaway: AM’s gathering growth is not at risk. We expect strong dry gas volume growth on AM’s Northeast system, and our G&P system analysis supports that outlook. The bigger point is that NGL constraints may change where AR derives its growth, making AM’s outlook more driven by dry gas and less tied to liquids-rich upside. In that scenario, AM still grows, but systems with cleaner exposure to dry gas may offer a more straightforward way to benefit from the same macro theme.
Exports:
NGL exports declined 4.4% W-o-W for the week ending June 5, driven by a drop in LPG and ethane exports.
LPG exports fell 4.9% W-o-W, with big gains at PSX Freeport (+40.9%) offset by a sharp drop at ET’s Marcus Hook terminal (-64.2%).
Ethane exports declined 2.5% W-o-W. A substantial increase at Marcus Hook (+285.7%) was offset by lower volumes at EPD’s Neches River terminal (-76.5%)
Rigs:
The total US rig count remained unchanged at 560 rigs for the week of May 30. Liquids-driven basins remained at 429 rigs W-o-W.
- Anadarko (+1): Flywheel Energy
- Eagle Ford (+1): GeoSouthern Energy
- Permian
- Delaware (-1): Continental Resources
- Midland (-1): Firebird Energy II
