Executive Summary:
Infrastructure: Energy Transfer (ET) plans a 240 Mb/d ethane expansion at its Nederland terminal in southeastern Texas, further strengthening its dominant position in US ethane exports.
Exports: NGL exports declined 1.5% W-o-W for the week ending July 3, driven primarily by lower ethane exports.
Rigs: The total US rig count decreased by 7 rigs to 569 for the week of June 27. Liquids-driven basins declined from 445 to 441 rigs.
Calendar: Hub Model & Basin S&D update
Infrastructure:
Energy Transfer (ET) plans a 240 Mb/d ethane expansion at its Nederland terminal in southeastern Texas, further strengthening its dominant position in US ethane exports. ET said June 18 it will construct two additional NGL ship docks and expand NGL pipe capacity from Mont Belvieu to Nederland to support the expansion. All of the ethane export capacity is committed under contracts running into the 2040s, ET said.
By 2028, ET’s terminals are on track to export up to 815 Mb/d of ethane, accounting for 56% of total US ethane export capacity, according to East Daley’s NGL Hub Model. Together with Enterprise Products (EPD), the two operators will account for more than 90% of US ethane export capacity, reinforcing their dominance in a market with few competitors (see table below).
China Drives US Ethane Growth
The Nederland investment reflects confidence in sustained global ethane demand, particularly from China. ET is uniquely positioned to capture new China demand through its 53% JV with Satellite Chemical, which includes both the Orbit export terminal and the associated ethane pipeline system. These assets provide a direct supply chain linking US ethane supply with Chinese petrochemical consumers.
The brief export restrictions imposed during spring 2025 demonstrate the resilience of the relationship. Although shipments to China temporarily declined, China remained the largest destination for US ethane exports. Following the removal of restrictions, exports quickly rebounded and resumed their upward trajectory. The China-ethane trade has grown more compelling in 2026. The Iran conflict has disrupted NGL and naptha trade from the Middle East, raising costs in Asia for competing feedstocks, while US ethane prices have stayed low.
As a result, Chinese steam crackers remain incentivized to maximize ethane consumption, reinforcing the long-term relationship between US ethane suppliers and Chinese petrochemical demand. Infrastructure constraints are also easing. East Daley projects the global very large ethane carrier (VLEC) fleet will nearly double by the end of 2028, with ~87% of new vessels entering service by YE27. Combined with expanding US export capacity, the fleet buildout removes another potential bottleneck to growth. Taken together, expanding export infrastructure, improving feedstock economics, and growing shipping capacity are all compelling evidence that the global ethane market remains in a sustained growth cycle.
Exports:
NGL exports declined 1.5% W-o-W for the week ending July 3, driven primarily by lower ethane exports. LPG exports remained relatively flat, decreasing 0.5% W-o-W. Declines at EPD Neches River (-24.3%) and ET Marcus Hook (-69.7%) were largely offset by higher exports across the remaining LPG terminals.
On the ethane side, EPD Neches River shifted its focus to LPG exports, reporting zero ethane exports for the week. A 64.0% decline at ET Marcus Hook outweighed gains at other ethane terminals, resulting in a 5.4% W-o-W decrease in ethane exports.
Rigs:
The total US rig count decreased by 7 rigs to 569 for the week of June 27. Liquids-driven basins declined from 445 to 441 rigs.
- Anadarko (+1): King Energy LLC
- Eagle Ford (+1): Formentera Partners
- Permian (-5)
- Delaware (-2): Matador Resources
- Midland (-3): Chevron Corporation; Halliburton Operating Company; Kinder Morgan, Inc
- Powder River (-2): 1876 Resources LLC; Continental Resources
- Uinta (+1): Wem Operating, LLC
Calendar: Hub Model & Basin S&D update