Flows out of the Haynesville indicate that production has started to grow again, but we still have a ways to go to balance the market. In the Macro Supply & Demand Forecast, East Daley Analytics is calling for ~1.2 Bcf/d of additional Haynesville gas supply this year to support rapidly growing demand.
Pipeline samples covering the Haynesville in Louisiana and East Texas increased ~550 MMcf/d between January-March ’25. EDA has observed most of the gains on DT Midstream’s (DTM) Blue Union and Energy Transfer’s (ET) Enable-Louisiana systems. Both systems gather most of their volumes from Expand Energy (EXE), so we assume that EXE has started working through its deferred inventory in response to stronger gas prices and increasing LNG demand.
In February, Expand released early 2025 guidance affirming its plan to grow by working through all the deferred capacity built up in 2024 across the Northeast and Haynesville. From 6.4 Bcf/d in 4Q24, EXE expects production to average ~7.1 Bcf/d in 2025 and to exit the year at 7.2 Bcf/d. Of that 7.1 Bcf/d average, roughly 2.9 Bcf/d is in the Haynesville.
EXE intends to build another 300 MMcf/d of production capacity by running up to 15 rigs in 2H25, taking potential production up to 7.5 Bcf/d in 2026. That 7.5 Bcf/d is essentially what EXE views as the equilibrium production level given a $3.50-$4/MMBtu gas price.
Other Haynesville producers are signaling more interest. Sabine Oil & Gas plans to add a fourth rig to its East Texas acreage this year, executives recently told the DUG Gas Conference in Shreveport, LA. And on its 4Q24 earnings update, BP said it sees the current forward gas strip as an opportunity to grow production. However, BP has a relatively limited Haynesville presence, running just 2-3 rigs in the play.
Conversely, Aethon, the largest private producer in the Haynesville, is guiding to maintenance production and calling for higher prices before it ramps up drilling. At CeraWeek 2025, Aethon President Gordon Huddleston said $5/MMBtu gas prices need “to carry on beyond ’26 into ’27 and ’28.” Recent Henry Hub futures averaged just under $4.50 in 2026, but prices were sitting at $3.75 in 2027-28. Aethon is currently operating just 4 rigs in the Haynesville, down from 7 in 2024.
Comstock Resources (CRK), the other large public, is focused on developing its Western Haynesville play in Texas. CRK is operating 4 rigs on that acreage, but plans to run 2-3 rigs on legacy Haynesville acreage to grow production in 4Q25.
East Daley believes maintenance production levels will not be enough to support demand growth in 2025 and ‘26. Our analysis in the Macro Supply & Demand Forecast points to significant price increases at Henry Hub should growth fail to materialize. In our unbalanced view of production, where rig activity is correlated to the forward Henry Hub strip, we see a scenario where prices could skyrocket to as high as $8/MMBtu (see figure above). That would certainly incentivize production growth, but we think the more likely scenario is somewhere between our balanced and unbalanced forecasts. A supply shortage would bump prices in the near term until producers are confident that more demand (from Golden Pass LNG in particular) will arrive. – Oren Pilant Tickers: BP, CRK, DTM, ET, EXE.
TODAY - Join East Daley’s Gas Webinar
Join East Daley on Thursday, April 3rd at 10 AM MST for an in-depth webinar on natural gas. In Natural Gas Market Dynamics: Henry Hub Premiums, Haynesville Trends & the 2026 Outlook, we will cover:
- Henry Hub Price Forecast: Our early 2024 call for stronger prices came true. How long will the premium last, and what's next?
- Haynesville Outlook: Most producers are set to boost 2025 output despite some holdouts. Citadel's buy of Paloma Resources has also heightened acquisition buzz.
- 2026 Overbought: Although 2025 production will meet demand, our forecast suggests 2026 prices are about $0.20 inflated, echoing our forward-looking 2024 outlook. Sign up now to attend.
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